ECONOMÍA

Opinión: Cuando se nos va El Niño

fuente: Andina

Se fue El Niño y todo mejora. Este año fue, económicamente, uno malo. Estuvimos en un periodo de contracción; algunos dirían que de recesión. Los precios de los productos tuvieron variaciones inimaginables, y, aunque no se nivelan del todo, ya han entrado a una etapa más estable. Esto gracias a que por segundo mes consecutivo hemos tenido un crecimiento económico mensual de 3.6%. En gran medida, la cifra se vincula al sector pesca y a la mejora del sector construcción; superando así lo dicho por los analistas de Bloomberg que estimaron crecería un 3.5%.

A lo largo de la historia peruana, hemos aprendido que cuando sucede el Fenómeno del Niño todo se lo lleva el agua, ya sea con lluvias, mareas, huaycos o desbordes de ríos. Todas las inversiones se detienen, los precios se disparan por los aires, la construcción pública y privada se vuelve casi nula, la pesca cae considerablemente, la agricultura se ve fuertemente afectada y así muchas de las industrias se contraen. Sin embargo, sabemos por experiencia que los años siguientes al Fenómeno del Niño son años de bonanza económica en la que la agronomía nos da sus mejores productos, la construcción se ve recuperada gracias a la reconstrucción, la pesca aumenta de manera inverosímil y aumentan las especies de peces, la industria financiera y de seguros puede aprovecharse esta viada y crecer con el resto de las industrias.

Por ejemplo, en este mes el sector pesca ya creció un 52% y se espera se mantenga, en menores cantidades, apuntando a un mayor crecimiento. Usualmente, el calentamiento de aguas que genera el Fenómeno del Niño permite que muchas especies marinas se reproduzcan en mayor cantidad. Cuando nuestro mar vuelve a enfriarse propicia la llegada de una mayor variedad de peces. Claro está que nos vemos beneficiados, en gran medida, por la anchoveta, de la cual se pescaron 668 mil toneladas aproximadamente, y al aumento de 102% de especies para congelado. Por otro lado, se reportó un crecimiento relevante en el sector de minería e hidrocarburos de 6.25%, el cual tiene una participación del 15% aproximadamente en nuestro PBI. El incremento de la demanda de China por el commodity generó presiones alcistas para el precio de este mineral, lo cual fue un punto beneficioso para este commodity.

Hay que resaltar que el sector estrella actualmente es construcción. Este estuvo en contracción por 9 meses hasta que finalmente creció 3.49% en julio. Su importancia en el PBI ha tomado mayor peso para el desarrollo a futuro, pues se cree que será la industria que mayor impulso tendrá en el mediano plazo al estar vinculada a la reconstrucción del norte del país. Esta reconstrucción vendrá dada, tanto por la inversión privada como por la pública, lo que generaría una mejora económica para los departamentos del norte tales como Piura, Lambayeque y La Libertad.

Agustín Orozco
UdeP, futuro economista y mellizo
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