ECONOMÍA

¿Hacia dónde estamos yendo? El Crecimiento del Perú

Crecimiento del Perú
Fuente: Fape.com

La fiesta mundialista está en pleno apogeo. El mundial parece haber cubierto con un manto de alegría y esperanza las calles del país. No cabe duda de que estamos todos con la gran expectativa que genera ver a Perú, como en el caso de todos los de mi generación, por primera vez en el Mundial. Pero la onda de optimismo y buen ánimo no solo debería emanar del hecho de tener a nuestra selección en la Copa del Mundo. Los indicadores de desempeño económico dados a conocer por el BCRP nos muestran que tenemos algunos motivos más por los cuales sentirnos bien. Básicamente, se observa un mayor dinamismo de la demanda interna como consecuencia de una influencia positiva del entorno internacional y la recuperación de la confianza empresarial que moviliza la inversión privada.

El comercio exterior muestra un incremento en los términos de intercambio de 4.9%. Esto como consecuencia del alza en el precio del petróleo y la recuperación de los precios internacionales del oro, cobre, zinc y plomo. Todos ellos con un gran peso en nuestras exportaciones. Según los datos del BCRP, este incremento en los términos de intercambio, junto con un mayor volumen de exportaciones, hará que la balanza comercial (la diferencia entre exportaciones e importaciones) tenga un superávit de alrededor de US$ 9 mil millones este 2018.

En el ámbito interno, se observa una evolución en varios indicadores de actividad económica que han influenciado en la recuperación de la demanda interna. Los sectores de electricidad, consumo interno de cemento, importaciones de bienes de consumo duradero y de bienes de capital muestran niveles de crecimiento superiores a los vistos en años anteriores. Sin embargo, lo que más llama la atención es el incremento de la inversión del Gobierno General (Nacional, Regional y Municipal), el cual ha tenido un crecimiento de 12,8% en lo que va del año. Esta cifra dista mucho de lo visto en los dos primeros trimestres del 2017, en donde se tuvieron disminuciones de alrededor del 10%.

Otro aspecto que genera optimismo es el mayor dinamismo de la actividad económica en cuanto a la generación de empleos. Según los registros de la SUNAT, hasta abril del presente año se generaron 192 mil puestos de trabajo. Además, la masa salarial aumentó en 8,7%. Probablemente, esto se explique por el mayor número de inmigrantes venezolanos que el país viene recibiendo en los últimos meses.

Por último, la confianza empresarial sobre el desempeño de la economía en un horizonte de 3 y 12 meses viene en aumento desde enero. De modo que se espera que la inversión privada aumente en 5,5% en lo que resta del año. Con todo, el BCRP espera un crecimiento de 4% del PBI del 2018 y de 4,2% para el del 2019. De cumplirse estas expectativas, el Perú se mantendría como el país con mayor crecimiento de la región tanto en el presente año como en el próximo. Sin duda, tenemos razones más que futbolísticas para estar contentos.

Fuente:

BCRP (2018) Reporte de Inflación: Panorama actual y proyecciones macroeconómicas 2018-2019. Junio.

Andrés Rosas
Economista PUCP. Disfruto investigando sobre los temas que más afectan a nuestra economía. Recontra futbolero y nadador por afición. Tengo la certeza de que la lectura es la cura para nuestros problemas.
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