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Análisis de oportunidades: 2018 – 2019

Una visión que pueda dar luces a la actual situación, comprender causas y consecuencias para tomar decisiones de inversión son reflexiones que el emprendedor deberá enfrentar en los próximos meses.

El mediano-largo plazo en el Perú no existe. Diseñamos un tipo de emprendedor que se adapta constantemente y lucha frente al mercado y los organismos de control.

Después de la caída del Presidente Pedro Pablo Kuczynski como consecuencia de una compleja situación de corrupción– se vive un momento de relativa calma. Comprender a qué nos vamos a enfrentar será clave.

Historia de nuestras capacidades

Perú mantiene retraso y ha orientado su eje productivo en commodities, un proceso de pobreza que ignoró la bonanza del 2005 al 2008.

¿Cómo dejamos de ser una potencia en agricultura?

Perdimos oportunidades, hicimos un estado ineficiente, con alta corrupción y baja educación. Ollanta Humala y PPK hicieron crecer el gasto del estado, en lugar de aplicar medidas de compensación esperadas. La Brecha del Producto ([1]) demuestra que no se tendrán opciones y pronto el personal capacitado será importado.

El crecimiento por sectores

Sólo el Sector Servicios mantiene crecimiento del 3%. Comercio y Construcción con muy baja actividad. La oferta de propiedades en venta, ahora es una actividad de refugio. Acciones contingentes, como los Juegos Panamericanos ([2]) son sólo complementos. Inversiones como Tía María (Arequipa) y Michiquillay (Cajamarca) serán determinantes.

¿Qué puede hacer el emprendedor?

Somos cortoplacista y no hemos dejado de vivir en crisis. Orientar el negocio a un mayor potencial de crecimiento, con menor riesgo, donde la mayoría sean Activos Intangibles. Oportunidades donde el consumo genere una tendencia mayor que la demanda ([3]).

Opciones para salir

Taxi por aplicaciones, donde el precio es mayor y el servicio percibido es alto, Operadores logísticos; Servicios de comunicación y publicidad; Cuidado de bebes y ancianos, son ejemplos creativos. Inicie su idea, arriésguese. No tema endeudarse, en tanto la deuda genere valor. Busque una idea creativa donde el componente servicio sea mayor y no pierda la esperanza que el país lo construyen los emprendedores y no los candidatos políticos.

[1] La diferencia entre el PBI observado y el PBI potencial se conoce como la Brecha Del Producto, indica qué tan lejos estamos en términos de producción de una situación de pleno uso de recursos.

[2] PBI Potencial y Crecimiento Económico, Jorge Baca Campodónico (Maximixe) http://alertaeconomica.com/el-pbi-potencial-y-el-crecimiento-economico/

[3] Consumo: Acción y efecto de consumir o gastar, ya sean “productos”, bienes o servicios, utilizar éstos para satisfacer necesidades primarias y secundarias; comprende las adquisiciones de bienes y servicios por parte de cualquier sujeto económico tanto el sector privado como en la administración pública. Demanda: Es la cantidad total de bienes y servicios que pueden ser adquiridos a diferentes precios del mercado por uno o más consumidores. Es una función matemática que se puede medir por la pendiente de la curva que determina las variaciones del precio, que al aumentar o disminuir establece una relación de elasticidad.

Jorge Grados Torres
Profesional Senior en Marketing y Finanzas, capaz de desarrollar propuestas de valor para desarrollar modelos más eficientes. Hábil en establecer sistemas de soporte frente a la competencia. Líder de equipos en áreas de gestión donde la generación de demanda es vital. El análisis es una característica en las decisiones para maximizar el valor de la empresa. A fecha realiza acciones de Consultoría para su marca propia NFocus Opportunities for Improvement.
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