Venezuela: Todos los conceptos que necesitas entender sobre un default

Fuente: Revista Zeta

A mediados de noviembre del año pasado, la calificadora de riesgo Standard & Poor’s declaró a la empresa estatal, Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), y a Venezuela en default parcial debido a retrasos en varios pagos de capital e intereses de la deuda soberana y de la compañía. Asimismo, la Asociación Internacional de Swaps y Derivados (ISDA) también declaró en default a PVDSA, que aporta 96% de las divisas del país, por retrasos. Esto llevó a que tenedores de bonos (acreedores de la deuda) reciban detalles para determinar el pago de los Credit Default Swaps (seguro contra un evento -de incumplimiento- crediticio).

Pero, ¿qué significan realmente todos estos términos? En este artículo quiero aprovechar lo que pasó en Venezuela para explicarles de forma más simple algunos conceptos.

Primero empecemos con definir un default parcial. Un default parcial es un incumplimiento en el pago de deuda, pero no en forma total; ya que no se han suspendido por completo los pagos, sino solo algunos de los compromisos (el deudor puede dejar de pagar sólo intereses). Esto puede ser declarado por el mismo gobierno y/o agencias calificadoras. Asimismo, se puede usar el término “evento crediticio”, con lo que se deja abierta una posibilidad de nuevas negociaciones y no se alarma a los mercados. Cabe mencionar, que algunos tipos de eventos crediticios son: bancarrota, impago y restructuración.

Por otro lado, existe una asociación (ISDA), mencionada líneas arriba, que representa a los participantes en la industria de derivados negociados de forma privada. Un derivado es un instrumento financiero cuyo valor depende de un activo subyacente (forwards, futuros, swaps, opciones). Desde su inicio, ISDA ha tenido como fin identificar y reducir las fuentes de riesgo en los derivados y el negocio de gestión de riesgos. Entre sus objetivos están: publicar una serie de documentación relacionada a cubrir una variedad de tipos de transacciones; promover buenas prácticas de gestión de riesgos y producir opiniones legales sobre la exigibilidad de los acuerdos de compensación y garantía (disponible solo para los miembros), como los Credit Default Swaps (CDS).

Esto nos lleva al tercer punto, ¿qué es un CDS? Un CDS es un contrato de seguro, que protege contra el riesgo de impago. En este contrato se establece una prima (CDS spread) que el comprador (inversionista) tiene que pagar periódicamente, para poder tener derecho a una cobertura: si se da la ocurrencia de un evento crediticio, la persona que compró el CDS se ve compensada por la persona que lo vendió (compañía de seguros, banco). De esta manera, a más probabilidad de default, el pricing del CDS será más alto. Pero, ¿qué recibirá al final el acreedor que sufrió impago? Pues eso depende del valor nocional de la deuda (monto total del crédito) y de otras deudas que estén en el mercado, de similar calificación crediticia.

Fuente: Elaboración Propia

Stacy Arciniega
Economista de profesión, personal shopper por afición. Me gusta saber de todo un poco. Actualmente soy Candidata al CFA Exam Level 2 con miras de terminar la certificación. Lema: “Andemos por fe, no por vista”.

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