ECONOMÍA

Euronomics: El ultimátum al modelo económico

El fin de semana pasado, el pueblo francés escogió a Emmanuel Macron para que sea su presidente durante los próximos cuatro años. Este resultado es positivo, porque aleja a Francia de las políticas populistas que proponía Marine Le Pen. Entre ellas estaban limitar la inmigración, adoptar medidas proteccionistas e incluso abandonar el euro para reintroducir el franco francés. Si Le Pen hubiera ganado, lo más probable es que se hubiera generado en una nueva crisis económica en Francia y en toda la Eurozona.

Si bien esto no ocurrió, el mensaje que enviaron los votantes franceses fue claro: se necesita un cambio urgente. Por primera vez en la historia republicana de Francia, ninguno de los candidatos de los dos partidos tradicionales pasó a la segunda vuelta. En su lugar, el pueblo francés escogió a un outsider, que nunca se había desempeñado en un cargo elegido democráticamente y cuyo partido tiene apenas un año de historia.

Gran parte del descontento de los franceses se explica porque los últimos gobiernos no han logrado reactivar su economía. Han pasado más de ocho años desde la crisis financiera internacional, pero la economía francesa no termina de escaparse del estancamiento ni de alejarse del peligro de la deflación. Más 10% de la población continúa desempleada; porcentaje que es incluso mayor entre los jóvenes y en zonas rurales. Por ello, no debería sorprender que Le Pen y Melenchon, los candidatos que buscan cambios radicales, hayan sido los más populares en estos segmentos.

La situación en Francia es similar a la del resto de Europa. Por eso, varias opciones radicales vienen ganando popularidad en los últimos meses. El año pasado, el Reino Unido votó por retirarse de la Unión Europea. Este año, el partido anti-euro de Geert Wilders logró obtener 13% de los votos en Holanda e incrementó su número de escaños en el parlamento de 12 a 20. En Italia y Alemania, las encuestas le dan cerca de un tercio de los votos a los partidos anti-euro en las próximas elecciones. Un triunfo de cualquiera de estos partidos probablemente representaría el fin de la Eurozona.

Las recetas que ofrecen los partidos populistas ya se han probado antes y se ha demostrado que no son la solución (basta con ver la situación en Venezuela). Sin embargo, tal vez sea necesario aceptar que el modelo económico, tal y como se está aplicando actualmente, no está funcionando y que la continua debilidad de la economía europea está haciendo que los partidos radicales ganen popularidad. Por eso, es necesario implementar urgentemente reformas que le permitan a la economía europea volver a crecer, como reducir el tamaño del estado, flexibilizar el mercado laboral y lograr algún tipo de unión fiscal entre los países de la Eurozona.

Hasta ahora, ninguno de estos partidos ha logrado alcanzar el poder. Así, Europa le está dando una última oportunidad a su modelo económico. Los nuevos gobiernos tendrán que demostrar que la libre movilidad de factores y la integración comercial aún pueden generar crecimiento y que este también puede beneficiar a las minorías. El reto es grande pero si no se logra, lo más probable es que los partidos populistas tomen Europa en las próximas elecciones.

¿Cualquier parecido con la realidad peruana será pura coincidencia?

 

Luis Fernando González-Prada
Economista de la Universidad de Pacífico y analista de estrategia de inversion en Rimac Seguros. Enamorado de la tecnología, la macroeconomía y todo tipo de deporte acuático.
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