ECONOMÍA

Trump: el poder de 140 caracteres

Desde su creación en el año 2006, Twitter se ha convertido en una de las redes sociales más populares e influyentes del mundo. Con más de 100 millones de usuarios diarios y más de 500 millones de tweets al dìa, es innegable que ha cambiado la manera como la gente se comunica. Y nadie parece conocer esta realidad mejor que el actual presidente de Estados Unidos Donald Trump. Con más de 37 millones de seguidores y casi 36 mil tweets, Trump parece haber elegido Twitter como su medio de comunicación favorito hacia el resto del mundo. Pero ¿cuál es el verdadero impacto económico del uso de esta herramienta en el mercado?

Volatilidad del mercado financiero y precios de las acciones

La volatilidad del mercado bursátil suele aumentar ante sorpresas o incertidumbre. Es de esperar entonces que anuncios inesperados del presidente muevan los precios de las acciones en el mercado. A continuación, presentamos algunos ejemplos de las reacciones del mercado “post-tweet”:

Lockheed Martin:

Impacto económico: -2% ($1.5 billones de dólares en cuota de mercado). Caídas en ETF’s aeroespaciales y de defensa (1%).

Amazon

Impacto económico: -1% inmediatamente después y 0.5% al final de día (5.7 billones de dólares en cuota de mercado)

Toyota

Impacto económico: Más de 1.2 billones de dólares en los 5 minutos siguientes al tweet y más de 5% (12 billones en cuota de mercado) en los siguientes seis meses.

Ford

Impacto económico: +3.2% (1.5 billones de dólares en cuota de mercado).

En el tipo de cambio

El mercado Forex tiende a ser sumamente sensible. En este contexto, comunicados acerca de las relaciones políticas o económicas entre Estados Unidos y otros países tienen un impacto considerable en el valor de las monedas.

El peso mexicano es posiblemente la moneda más afectada por los tweets de Trump. Desde el inicio de su presidencia, estos han tratado temas desde inmigración hasta la construcción de un muro. Solo en Enero de este año, este perdió más de 1% de su valor en pocas horas tras un comunicado acerca de la construcción del muro entre EEUU y México.

Impacto económico (desde el inicio de la presidencia): -17.14% del valor del peso mexicano

¿Realmente importa?

Según el Financial Times, en promedio, el efecto de los insultos de Trump en Twitter suele revertirse casi inmediatamente (en la mayoría de casos) mientras que los elogios tienen un efecto de un 1% en los precios de las acciones que se empieza a disipar pasadas las 24 horas. No obstante, los movimiento es en mercado pueden presentarse como una oportunidad para el la venta de acciones mediante códigos algorítmicos que pueden asegurar ganancias sustanciales.

¿En conclusión? No es muy seguro cual es el verdadero efecto en el largo plazo pero al parecer todos (aparentemente incluso los mercados) parecemos tener algún tipo de reacción negativa a las palabras de Donald Trump.

Fuente: Financial Times

Katiza Baraka
Casi economista de la Universidad del Pacífico, interesada en políticas públicas, educación y consultoría. Amante de la música e historia. Si pudiese viajaría sin parar hasta conocer todo el mundo.
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