ECONOMÍA

Teoría de Fútbol: Empate Perú vs. Colombia

Fuente: Liga Deportiva Postobon

El día de ayer nos jugamos nuestra posible clasificatoria al mundial contra Colombia. No faltaba ese amigo que había hecho un análisis de escenarios tremendo, que tenía sus cálculos en el celular sobre qué resultado nos convenía y cómo tenían que quedar los otros partidos. Todo perfectamente controlado y tomado en cuenta.

El resultado fue un empate de 1-1. Pero algo me llamó la atención. Muchos querían que el partido acabase. Pero yo pensaba: “¿por qué si podemos lucharla? ¿Por qué no atacamos y vamos por el segundo?” Dieron 3 minutos más y sucedió algo que no podía creer. Se ve a Falcao hablándoles a algunos de nuestros jugadores, mientras se tapa la boca. Si bien no se ve exactamente qué se dicen, todos ya sabían de qué se trataba.

Yo no entendía qué estaba pasando. ¿Por qué Colombia nos dice que “aguantemos”? ¿Por qué no atacaban? Pues se puede tratar de explicar esa “decisión” de los últimos minutos complementarios con uno de los temas más usados de la microeconomía, la teoría de juegos. Esta teoría nos explica que en la búsqueda de éxito no sólo importan nuestras decisiones, sino las decisiones que toman los demás. Y no sólo eso, sino que nuestras propias decisiones están condicionadas a las decisiones que yo crea que van a tomar los otros. ¿El objetivo? Actuar teniendo en cuenta lo que pensamos que harán los demás, sabiendo que ellos, a su vez, actuarán pensando en lo que creen que nosotros vamos a hacer. ¿Confuso? Con un ejemplo se entenderá mejor.

El clásico ejemplo es el del dilema del prisionero. En este ejemplo, se analizan los incentivos que tienen dos presos para delatar al otro a la policía, y así, acceder a una pena de menor castigo; teniendo siempre en cuenta la decisión que podría tomar el otro. Veamos el siguiente recuadro:

Fuente: Elaboración Propia

Dentro de las posibilidades tenemos:

  • Nadie delata: donde cada uno recibiría una condena de 2 años.
  • Uno delata al otro: aquí el prisionero que delata reduciría su condena de 2 a 1 año; mientras que el delatado vería aumentada su condena, de 2 a 10 años.
  • Ambos de delatan mutuamente: cada uno recibiría una condena de 6 años.

La conclusión de este ejercicio, es que la decisión lógica de cada preso tomado por separado hace que al final cada uno elija lo que es mejor para él individualmente y no la que sería la mejor decisión para  los dos.
Si nos ponemos en el lugar de uno de los presos, sabemos que nuestra mejor decisión será la de delatar al otro en cualquier caso, pues así siempre minimizaremos nuestra pérdida, independientemente de lo que el otro haga. Y dado que el otro equipo es igual de inteligente, razonará de la misma manera. Entonces, si cada uno piensa así, los dos se delatarían. A eso se le llama “Equilibrio de Nash”: situación en la que cada jugador individual no gana nada modificando su estrategia mientras que los otros mantengan las suyas. A pesar de ello, “ambos se delatan” es peor que “ambos cooperan”, en el sentido de que se arriesgan a tener más años de condena. Por lo que lo segundo sería lo más óptimo (conocido como ‘Óptimo de Pareto’). Sin embargo, la estrategia “ambos cooperan” es inestable, ya que un preso puede mejorar su resultado desertando si su oponente mantiene la estrategia de cooperación. Cabe señalar que para existir cooperación es necesario tanto comunicación como un contrato vinculante que asegure que no cambien sus decisiones finales.

Si trasladamos esto al partido, tendríamos la siguiente matriz; donde lo que se analiza es la ganancia de cada estrategia (considerar que los montos pueden cambiar pero la idea es la misma):

Fuente: Elaboración Propia. (Colombia, Perú)

Entonces, si Perú decide atacar, Colombia decidirá atacar (si no ataca recibe 20, si ataca recibe 100). Si Perú decide no atacar, a Colombia le daría igual (consideremos que con un empate Colombia ya estaba dentro del mundial). Por otra parte, si Colombia decide atacar, a Perú le conviene atacar (si no ataca recibe 0, si ataca recibe 20). Si Colombia decide no atacar, Perú decide atacar (80 vs 100).

En este caso, pasa lo mismo que en el dilema del prisionero. Si cada uno toma decisión individualmente, lo que escogerá es atacar; y sabrá el que el otro hará lo mismo. En este caso el equilibrio de Nash sería que ambos ataquen: ambas partes no pueden cambiar su decisión individual sin empeorar (si uno de los equipos decidiera no atacar al otro, su situación sería aún peor, pues se arriesgaría que le metan goles, mientras que el otro equipo siga teniendo incentivos a atacar). Sin embargo, lo que pasó ayer fue distinto, ambos decidieron no atacar, que en este caso sería lo más óptimo, pero no sería equilibrado pues si Perú atacase recibiría 80 en vez de 100. Y otra vez ocurre lo mismo, “ambos atacan” es peor que “ambos cooperan”, en el sentido de que se arriesgan a que les metan goles; por lo que lo segundo sería lo más óptimo. No obstante, la estrategia “ambos cooperan” no es consistente, ya que un equipo puede mejorar su resultado desertando si su oponente mantiene la estrategia de no atacar.

Recalquemos que, si bien pudo haber cierto acuerdo entre ambas partes, este no es un juego cooperativo ya que no hay nada certero (un contrato) que te asegure que si te dicen “no atacaré”, en verdad lo cumplan.

Después de haber hecho este análisis, considero que esos tres últimos minutos de puro paso de pelota fue lo mejor. Que dejar el resultado así, fue lo más óptimo. No fue un equilibrio de Nash porque si atacábamos hubiéramos tenido chance de meter un gol. Pero quién sabe, fácil nos contraatacaban peor; así que fuimos a lo seguro (con incertidumbre). Con esto se prueba que no es posible racionalizar todo y prueba también que la economía, como buena ciencia social, puede ser aplicada a cualquier ámbito, hasta en el fútbol.

P.D: Si desean saber más sobre este tema, los invito a ver “Una mente brillante”, no los decepcionará.

 

Stacy Arciniega
Economista de profesión, personal shopper por afición. Me gusta saber de todo un poco. Actualmente soy Candidata al CFA Exam Level 2 con miras de terminar la certificación. Lema: “Andemos por fe, no por vista”.
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