ECONOMÍA

#Soccernomics – Perú 2018: “Si clasificamos, ganamos todos”

Ya son 36 años de frustraciones generacionales; de “casis” no cumplidos; de reproches a esquemas y jugadas. 36 años en el que cada uno se volvía el DT ideal, comentarista deportivo o el mejor jugador de la selección, brindando cátedra al televisor. Sin embargo, estos 36 años como nunca antes pueden llegar a su fin y, para dicha nuestra, en casa. Así, el Perú se encuentra ante la mirada atenta de su población y por qué no decir del mundo. Esto representa una ventana de oportunidad perfecta que vale la pena analizar, desde un nada desmerecido aspecto económico.

Fueron más de 47 000 entradas vendidas para el enfrentamiento entre Perú y Colombia de manera formal que, basándome en experiencias pasadas, ha podido generar ingresos por taquilla de cerca de 2.5 millones de dólares (El Comercio, 2017). Esto, no obstante, no considera la reventa de dichas entradas en otras plataformas y la disposición a pagar de varios hinchas debido al optimismo. Esto último viene originando un mercado negro donde el costo por entrada se ha cuadriplicado, yendo desde los 250 hasta los 800 soles (La República, 2017).

Por lo mismo, una primera conclusión es la recuperación del desacelerado consumo interno en el corto plazo. Se daría la mejora del sector textil, gracias al incremento en ventas de camisetas y el incremento en la asistencia y consumo en restaurantes, centros comerciales y la venta de artefactos eléctricos como televisores, tablets o radios. Más aún, la clasificación a Rusia dispararía el valor bursátil de determinadas compañías, entre las que salta Backus o Arca Continental-Lindley (RPP, 2017).

Como bien describe el economista Carlos Anderson: “(…) cuando hay una situación de optimismo todo cambia, porque te sientes mejor y por ende tiendes a consumir más”. Inclusive se ha llegado a hablar de un incremento de 0.5 al PBI en este último cuarto trimestre. Esto implicaría ingresos de alrededor de 300 a 350 millones de dólares (Gestión, 2017). Además, el clima de optimismo podría mejorar la confianza del consumidor y las expectativas de crecimiento de los principales indicadores económicos.

Ahora, estar como centro de atención por un mundial podría significar el incremento en el ingreso por el flujo de turistas y la mejora indirecta de la inversión en la infraestructura asociada. Así, se tendría mejores servicios en hoteles, la posibilidad de concretar la ampliación de un segundo terminal para el Aeropuerto Jorge Chávez y mejorar los servicios aeroportuarios a nivel nacional. Más aún, se darían las condiciones para incrementar la intermodalidad entre modos de transporte y la infraestructura urbana que permita reivindicar al peatón. Todos estos aspectos ya vistos en casos de países en desarrollo, luego de sus exitosas campañas en mundiales anteriores (Matsuoka De Aragao, 2015).

Pase lo que pase, el Perú está reescribiendo su historia no solo justificando los últimos 36 años de “mala racha”, sino la senda de crecimiento que podemos tener para los próximos 36. Que este martes 10 de octubre, se sienta la frase: “si clasificamos, ganamos todos”. ¡Arriba Perú!

Alberto Saldarriaga
Wanna be Economista de la UP. Con gran interés en el trabajo de consultoría e investigación de políticas sociales que garanticen un desarrollo económico sostenible, según la coyuntura y entorno de cada país. Además, me considero un melómano, cinéfilo y apreciador del arte.
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