ECONOMÍA

Análisis: El detrás de la deuda de Venezuela

Fuente: Daily Beast

Fuente: CEPAL, Banco de Venezuela, ProDavinci. Elaboración Propia.

La deuda pública total de Venezuela, incluyendo a la empresa petrolera estatal Petróleos de Venezuela S.A (Pdvsa con el 24%), fue de US$ 181 mil millones (mil MM) al 2016 (US$ 137 mil MM sin Pdvsa), según CEPAL. Y de este monto, US$ 68 mil MM corresponden a la deuda en bonos de Venezuela (53%) y Pdvsa (47%). Así, es el segundo país de América Latina con más deuda, después de México. No obstante, el caso mexicano es compensado por su mayor nivel de PBI. Según el IMF y el Banco Mundial, el PBI mexicano y venezolano alcanzaron las cifras de US$ 1.0 y US$ 0.1 billones al 2016, respectivamente.

Por su parte, la capacidad de pago de Venezuela está vinculada a la de generación de divisas procedente de las ventas del petróleo, casi única fuente de ingresos. Cabe señalar que esta ha sido afectada principalmente por la caída de los precios del petróleo (US$ 111.65/MMBtu durante el 2012 vs. US$ 43.55/MMBtu para el 2016). Lo anterior genera grandes dificultades en el pago de sus obligaciones.

En cuanto a la deuda en bonos (aproximadamente el 40% de la deuda pública total), esta se ha duplicado en los últimos diez años, tanto a través del Estado como de Pdvsa.

Si es tan insostenible, ¿por qué no deja de pagar, y entra en default?

Hay poco o ningún beneficio de Venezuela de entrar a default. En caso de no pagar, podría ahorrar US$ 7,000 MM del no pago de las amortizaciones del proximo año. No obstante, dicho beneficio se vería contrarrestado por la pérdida de exportaciones y las retenciones de pagos de petróleo y otros activos en Estados Unidos, lo que dejaría a Venezuela sin su principal sustento económico. Lo anterior se debe al monto importante de activos venezolanos fuera de su país, tales como las refinerías venezolanas que se encuentran en EE.UU (Citgo, una subsidiaria de Pdvsa), las cuales serían retenidas y atravesarían un largo proceso legal. En otras palabras, están atados.

Por su parte, otros analistas indican que solo habría una razón por la de no pagar. Esta sería usar las reservas (US$ 10 mil MM) para importar comida y medicina necesarias para su población. Cabe señalar que, de no utilizarse para lo anterior, el monto de las reservas alcanzaría para pagar el servicio de deuda (amortizaciones e intereses) hasta el año 2018. Por lo que de no reestructurar la deuda (atrasar los pagos), entraría inminentemente en default.

Problemas de la estructuración de la deuda

El vicepresidente venezolano Tareck el Aissami, encargado de negociar la reestructuración de deuda, se encuentra sancionado por Estados Unidos. Lo anterior se debe a que Aissami se encuentra involucrado en el negocio del narcotráfico desde Colombia a México. Así, en agosto 2017 el gobierno de los EE.UU. impuso restricciones de compra/venta de bonos de Venezuela en los mercados financieros estadounidenses. Estos últimos son la principal fuente de fondos a nivel mundial. Por lo que dicha restricción, reduce exponencialmente la posibilidad de reestructurar la deuda venezolana.

Resumen de los principales eventos:

2014:

Bancos internacionales han reducido o paralizado el crédito a Pdvsa, debido a retrasos en sus pagos de deuda. Las sanciones de Estados Unidos contra funcionarios venezolanos también desincentivan a los bancos de ofrecer préstamos.

2016:

Enero: el presidente venezolano admite la caída de importaciones del más de 50% respecto a 2015. Lo anterior explica la escasez de productos exhacerbada por el régimen cambiario de Venezuela. Ese es uno de los elementos clave de la grave crisis económica que sufre Venezuela, con elevada inflación y escasez de alimentos y medicinas.

Setiembre: El Gobierno Venezolano reestructura parte de su deuda (US$ 2.8 mil MM) con el Gobierno Ruso, la cual sería pagada semestralmente durante tres años a partir de marzo de 2019. Pdvsa acuerda con ONGC Videsh Ltd, empresa india, pagar su deuda en barriles de petróleo (17,000 por día) y cash.

2017:

Abril: Pdva no puede pagar sus obligaciones a ONGC, pero logró conseguir financiamiento de un banco ruso, Gazprombank, y de una importante empresa india de refinería, India’s Reliance Industries Ltd.

Agosto:  Se imponen las restricciones de compra/venta de títulos de bonos venezolanos en EE.UU.

Noviembre:

02/11: Nicolás Maduro indicó que planea la reestructuración de cerca de US$ 60 mil MM en bonos venezolanos y que se realizará el pago de US$ 1.2 mil MM de servicio de deuda. El primero de estos genera que el valor de los bonos caiga un 50%, ya que confirmaría la difícil situación que atraviesa la economía venezolana.

03/11: Tenedores de los bonos temen de que no se realice el pago de la deuda, lo que genera que el valor de los bonos venezolanos caiga aún más.

10/11: Se confirma el pago retrasado de US$ 1.2 mil MM de Pdvsa. Asimismo, la empresa estatal eléctrica Corpoelec de Venezuela asegura que realizó el pago de intereses por US$ 0.7 mil MM. Lo anterior reforzó la confianza de los inversionistas de la capacidad de pago de Venezuela. Así, se observó un incremento del valor de los bonos venezolanos (+23%), al igual que de Pdvsa (+8%).

11/11: El presidente venezolano indicó que el lunes se reunirán con los tenedores de bonos para renegociar los términos de la deuda. Según fuentes de Reuters, el Gobierno habría prometido a los inversionistas que el vicepresidente Tareck El Aissami y otros funcionarios sancionados por Estados Unidos no participarían en las conversaciones sobre la deuda. Dicha reunión decidirá si la deuda podrá pagarse y darle un respiro a Venezuela para enfocarse en la deplorable situación económica de sus ciudadanos.

Fuente: ProDavinci. Gran parte de los pagos de deuda están concentrados en el corto y mediano plazo. Una reestructuración reduciría el nivel de pago anual (US$ 8 mil MM para el 2018).

Fiorella Torres
Cofundadora de ONHelp, startup social que financia proyectos de ONGs sin necesidad de donar dinero directamente, sin hacer voluntario, sino con solo un clic! Creando así a los nuevos Voluntarios Digitales.
Licenciada de Economía de la Universidad del Pacífico, especializada en criptografía por Princeton University, y fanática de la volatilidad del mercado (puedo hablarte por horas del tipo de cambio). Me gusta tocar la batería, ver los atardeceres y disfrutar de buenas conversas.
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