ECONOMÍA

Mercados emergentes: ¿Crisis u oportunidad?

Fuente: Pinterest

Los mercados emergentes, efectivamente, son más volátiles a comparación de sus pares que alcanzan la categoría de desarrollados. Empero, constituyen la zona geográfica del mundo con mayor crecimiento potencial de PIB en el mediano y largo plazo. La gran ventaja de invertir en este universo es la inconmensurable oferta de oportunidades para todo tipo de perfil de inversores. Sin embargo, a raíz de la nueva cruzada abierta entre los Estados Unidos y China para hacerse con el liderazgo de la economía mundial, este bloque experimenta un periodo de turbulencia.

 ¿Cuáles son las causas?

Las recientes medidas arancelarias impuestas a China junto con el fortalecimiento de la economía americana, se erigen como los principales factores de esta coyuntura atípica.

La Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económico (OCDE) advierte que tarifas de importación más altas, en promedio, reducirían gradualmente medio punto porcentual el crecimiento del PIB global. De acuerdo con este organismo, el proteccionismo impulsado por Trump compromete seriamente los estándares de vida de los países emergentes. Al mismo tiempo, la tensión en los mercados financieros ha empeorado a medida que se han intensificado las disputas comerciales. Tan así es, que inversionistas sacaron alrededor de US$ 900 millones de fondos de renta variable de mercados emergentes durante la semana que finalizó el 11 de julio, según data de EPFR Global.

Por otra parte, la economía americana sigue mostrando sólidos indicios de crecimiento a menos de un año de la histórica reforma fiscal promulgada. El desempleo ha alcanzado mínimos de 20 años, alrededor del 90% de los americanos perciben un aumento en sus salarios y más de US$ 300 billones fueron repatriados a los Estados Unidos durante el primer trimestre del año. No obstante, operar al límite de un sobrecalentamiento desmesurado ha generado que la Fed aumente los tipos de interés en dos ocasiones durante el año. Esto, en consecuencia, significa una apreciación del dólar puesto que es más rentable colocar esta divisa en su país de origen. Como resultado, se incrementan los riesgos de crédito para aquellas economías emergentes que tienen necesidades de financiamiento externo.

 ¿Cómo reacciona Latinoamérica?

La región se caracteriza por su histórica dependencia de la liquidez de los Estados Unidos. Sin embargo, las circunstancias no son iguales para todos los países que integran la región. Aquellas naciones con alto endeudamiento en moneda extranjera, abultados déficits fiscales y problemas inflacionarios, evidentemente estarán más expuestas. Tal es el caso de Argentina, país que se ha visto obligado a pedir un rescate financiero al FMI por los problemas estructurales que afronta su economía. En cambio, países como México y Perú han mostrado una mayor robustez debido a la fortaleza de sus monedas y reservas internacionales consistentes.

 ¿Es momento de desinvertir en mercados emergentes?

En la crisis nace la oportunidad. Si bien este conglomerado de mercados son una categoría de activos que suelen dar miedo a los inversores más conservadores, la vorágine experimentada los convierte en una opción de inversión a futuro. Las ventas masivas de activos emergentes en los últimos meses propician este posible escenario, pues el valor de estos ha disminuido, sobretodo en renta variable. Para ilustrar mejor la situación, durante el segundo trimestre del año el índice bursátil MSCI de los mercados emergentes ha bajado en 8.7%.

A fin de cuentas, la decisión de invertir o no depende de más que solo limitarse a observar la evolución de ciertos índices. Se debe considerar el contexto del mercado, sus expectativas a futuro e indicadores de confianza e institucionalidad. De otro modo, es especulación pura. Por el momento, el único destello sobre el futuro del bloque emergente es la acción de la Fed respecto a la tasa de referencia.

 Fuentes:

Cinco Días (2018). Mercados emergentes: ¿Cómo sortear la subida de tipos y la guerra comercial?

Euribor (2018). Los mercados emergentes viven el mayor episodio continuo de pérdidas en más de dos años

Reuters (2018). Grandes economías emergentes, las más dañadas si suben los aranceles comerciales: OCDE

The White House (2018). Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: The American Economy Is Booming

Hugo Salazar
Estudiante de Economía en la Universidad del Pacífico. Nadador y ciclista empedernido. Con predilección por analizar el entorno macroeconómico mundial y su impacto en el bienestar de países en desarrollo. La educación nos hará libres.
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