ECONOMÍA

Los Futuros del Bitcoin ya son una realidad

Fuente: Reuters

Desde sus inicios, las criptomonedas han tenido más de un escéptico u opositor, especialmente los ejecutivos de los bancos más grandes a nivel mundial han alzado su voz en contra. La razón principal ha sido el potencial sobrecalentamiento de las monedas debido a la constante volatilidad del precio y a la tendencia alcista. Por ello, muchos consideran a las criptomonedas “una burbuja” a punto de explotar. Esta vez los futuros no son la excepción y también se encuentran en el ojo de la tormenta ya que son considerados el acelerador de esta “burbuja”.

A pesar de las críticas, tanto inversionistas como intermediarios ven grandes oportunidades de negocio en las criptomonedas. En este caso, el mercado de futuros se crea como respuesta a un aumento de la demanda de los inversionistas por el bitcoin, respecto al año anterior. Por ejemplo, CoinBase, uno de los más grandes intermediarios de bitcoins, tuvo un tráfico muy pesado a finales de noviembre cuando el precio llegaba a 10 000 dólares, evidenciando un gran interés en la moneda y una limitada capacidad para abastecer toda la demanda.

Como resultado, tres de las más grandes compañías de intermediación financiera de Estados Unidos tienen mucho interés en ingresar al mercado de futuros. La primera fue Cboe Global Mkt Inc. (Cboe), la cual acaba de concretar su ingreso esta semana. La siguiente seria CME Group Inc que ingresará a competir el 18 de diciembre. Por último, Intercontinental Exchange Inc. que ha mostrado mucho interés, pero aún no ha manifestado fecha sobre su ingreso al mercado.

¿Cómo funcionan?

Un contrato futuro deriva su valor de algún activo subyacente como, por ejemplo, los commodities o en este caso los bitcoins. La idea es pactar el precio hoy sobre una compra futura. Así el contrato obliga al comprador a pagar el precio acordado al término del periodo establecido; lo cual permite al inversionista especular sobre los movimientos del precio del subyacente. La pérdida/ganancia es resultado de la diferencia entre el spot al cierre del contrato y el precio pactado del futuro.

La principal diferencia respecto a los futuros regulares es que los de Cboe son liquidados en efectivo, es decir, en vez de obtener un bitcoin al final del contrato, se recibe un monto de dinero igual al precio del bitcoin pactado. En este sentido, habría una mayor preferencia por los futuros debido a que estos generarían efectivo e implican inversiones indirectas respecto al bitcoin. Esta sería la principal razón por la que el precio del futuro ha sido mayor que la del spot desde que se abrió el mercado.

Así este producto abre más posibilidades para generar una estrategia de inversión debido a que en el mercado regular de bitcoins solo se compraba la moneda y se mantenía en el portafolio bajo la apuesta al aumento del valor. Ahora, con los futuros se abre la posibilidad de apostar en contra y generar efectivo.

¿Es una buena idea invertir en futuros?

Los opositores argumentan que es muy pronto abrir un nuevo mercado de futuros debido a la volatilidad del bitcoin. Tan es así que al tercer día de la apertura de los futuros, en Coinbase’s GDAX Exchange, los precios aumentaron a US$ 20 000 de US$ 16 000 en solo 90 minutos y luego volvieron a caer.

También alegan que no hay una consideración total de los riesgos que implica este nuevo producto. En una carta abierta de The futures Industry Asssociation; agrupación de bancos, brokers y traders, a los intermediarios se cuestiona si estos habrían anticipado una política en caso de manipulación del mercado de bitcoin. Además, sugieren que debió haber existido un análisis más profundo sobre los niveles de margen, límites de negociación y pruebas de estrés antes de salir al mercado. En este caso Cboe y CME requieren a los traders tener un alto monto de dinero que sirva de colateral para respaldar sus compras. Por ello, acceder a los futuros tendría un alto costo para el inversionista.

Si bien tenemos pros y contras, antes de invertir en cualquier instrumento siempre se debe considerar todos los riesgos asociados y en el caso específico de los derivados, se debe conocer a fondo al activo subyacente y al producto en sí mismo. De esa manera se asegura una inversión consciente y se pueden establecer posibles escenarios para el inversionista.

Al parecer, esto no termina aquí, aun tendremos muchas más noticias sobre las criptomonedas y su expansión en el mercado, porque esto recién comienza.

Fuentes:

Bloomberg. Futuros del Bitcoin.

  • https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-10/you-can-trade-bitcoin-futures-but-should-you-quicktake-q-a
  • https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-11/bitcoin-futures-and-banky-thoughts
  • https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-10/bitcoin-futures-trading-opens-bringing-crypto-to-wall-street
  • https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-09/bitcoin-futures-trading-brings-crypto-into-mainstream-finance

 

 

Karla Almeyda
Economista de la Universidad del Pacífico. Me encanta el análisis de los instrumentos financieros (bonos, derivados, etc.). Soy una fiel amante del deporte, la alimentacion saludable, los viajes y la buena música.
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