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La racha negativa de la Bolsa de Valores de Lima

Fuente: Financial Tribune

Si creíamos que la “disputa” de aranceles entre Estados Unidos y China no iba a crecer tanto, ni iba a llegar a hacer que nuestra bolsa local sufra volatilidad; pues qué equivocados estábamos.

A mediados de junio de este año, los precios de los metales comenzaron a caer, principalmente como consecuencia de las preocupaciones intensificadas sobre la guerra comercial entre Estados Unidos y China; luego de que Trump amenazara con imponer un arancel del 10% a US$ 200 mil millones en productos chinos. Este conflicto causó nerviosismo con respecto al crecimiento económico global y a la demanda de los metales. Esto último afectó a la Bolsa de Valores de Lima. Recordemos que la BVL está compuesta principalmente por compañías mineras. Por el lado del S&P/BVL Peru General (benchmark amplio del mercado peruano), este alcanzó su punto mínimo, en lo que va del año, el último día de junio; acumulando en el mes una pérdida de 4.87% y en el año, una de 0.87%. En el caso del índice S&P/BVL Peru Select (índice de capitalización), este llegó a 522.39, sufriendo una caída de 5.88% en junio. Sin embargo, acumula una ganancia de 1.55% en lo que va del año.

Elaboración Propia. Fuente: Bloomberg y BVL.

Bien dice el dicho “Tit For Tat

A fines de marzo de este año, comenzó lo que ahora se conoce como guerra comercial entre Estados Unidos y China.  Primero, Trump decidió imponer nuevos aranceles al acero y al aluminio (principales metales importados de China). Una semana después, China tomó represalias con nuevas tarifas en 128 categorías de productos (frutas, industria petrolera, etanol, etc.). En los días subsiguientes, la administración del país americano anunció una lista de 1,333 categorías de productos chinos que podrían enfrentar aranceles del 25%. Ante esto, el país asiático estableció una lista de productos para futuras represalias, incluyendo la soja y automóviles (exportaciones clave de los Estados Unidos).

A raíz de esto, Trump manifestó considerar US$ 100 mil millones de aranceles adicionales, señalando la deslealtad de China. Así, el 15 de junio, él impuso aranceles sobre importaciones del país oriental por un valor de US$ 50 mil millones. Es ahí donde los Ministerios de Comercio y de Finanzas de China informaron contramedidas de la misma escala: aranceles del 25% en 545 categorías de productos estadounidenses por valor de US$ 34 mil millones incluyendo carne de res, whisky y vehículos todoterreno y una posible adición de US$ 16 mil millones, apuntando al carbón y petróleo crudo. Dos días después, Estados Unidos señaló que iba a colocar un 10% de arancel a otros US$ 200 mil millones en bienes de China, si este cumplía con las medidas de represalia que anunció; agregando que estaba preparado para imponer aranceles en US$ 200 mil millones extra.

Metales se tambalean

Con respecto a lo que se mencionaba al inicio, en junio, el zinc cayó 5.12%, el oro lo hizo en 3.81%, el cobre en 3.16% y la plata en 2.47%. Esto se vio reflejado en las compañías mineras que cotizan en la bolsa limeña. Nótese que a partir de marzo la caída es más pronunciada y que la empresa más afectada fue Trevali, que explota principalmente zinc.

Elaboración Propia. Fuente: Bloomberg y BVL

Según el mercado, con un creciente conflicto comercial entre los Estados Unidos y China, los metales básicos sufrirán precios más bajos. Es de esperar que el dólar también influya en el comportamiento del precio de estas materias primas: si el valor del dólar aumenta (lo que ocurrirá si la Fed se decide por un aumento de tasa),  los metales que están denominados en dólares se volverán más caros para las empresas no estadounidenses.

Fuentes:

Stacy Arciniega
Economista de profesión, personal shopper por afición. Me gusta saber de todo un poco. Actualmente soy Candidata al CFA Exam Level 2 con miras de terminar la certificación. Lema: “Andemos por fe, no por vista”.
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