ECONOMÍA

La fragilidad económica de la democracia

El año 2016 fue testigo del inicio del cuarto gobierno democrático desde la década del 90 y el régimen de Alberto Fujimori. En términos generales, es correcto señalar que nuestro país está viviendo una etapa de estabilidad política general. Sin embargo, yendo un poco más allá, podemos darnos cuenta que a pesar del ambiente democrático, los conflictos sociales y políticos no han cesado. Una forma de medir la estabilidad política del país es la usada por Jong-A-Pin (2009) que involucra 4 factores o dimensiones a tomar en cuenta: (1) Violencia por motivos políticos, (2) violencia política de masas, (3) inestabilidad dentro del régimen, y (4) inestabilidad del régimen político.

¿Es el Perú un país inestable políticamente según esta construcción? ¿Hay un impacto sobre variables como el crecimiento económico?

Estas 4 dimensiones traen a la memoria muchos eventos ocurridos durante los últimos 16 años. El “baguazo” del 2009 puede ser un punto crítico social, política y económicamente durante nuestra etapa democrática. Un conflicto social, un trasfondo económico y de derechos humanos, y consecuencias nefastas. Sin ir más allá, durante este último gobierno, se han presentado dos interpelaciones a ministros, demostrando así que los poderes del Estado están en conflicto. Busse & Hefeker (2007) señalan que algunos de los factores claves del nivel de inversión extranjera directa, medida de crecimiento para países como el nuestro, son los conflictos internos y externos, tensiones éticas, calidad burocrática y otros, todos relacionados a la estabilidad de un país. Según la Defensoría del Pueblo, hasta el mes de abril de este año, existen 186 conflictos sociales, de los cuales 133 son activos y 53 son latentes. Estamos en un escenario de paz democrática, pero los actores se enfrentan en una historia de violencia que pasa desapercibida.

Famosa es la teoría del péndulo peruano de Efraín Gonzáles de Elarte, que postula la relación directa del ciclo político con la del ciclo económico en nuestro país, tomando como muestra el periodo de 1963 hasta 1990. Gonzáles de Elarte nos dice que nuestro país presenta una estrecha relación entre los periodos de democracia, las crisis económicas y los golpes de Estado. Esto nos lleva a preguntarnos ¿El último ciclo económico de bonanza en el país fue resultado de la estabilidad política? ¿O caso contrario, fue ese crecimiento el causante de la estabilidad? Y aun respondiendo esas interrogantes, nos queda la más difícil de todas: ¿Qué tan frágil es nuestra estabilidad, tanto política como económica?

Bengoa & Sánchez-Robles (2003) señalan que el crecimiento económico de países latinoamericanos puede ser generado por el aumento de la inversión extranjera directa, tomando en cuenta la estabilidad de un país, política y económicamente. Importante señalarlo, dados los últimos acontecimientos: un gobierno donde dos poderes del Estado están en conflicto, con un número elevado de conflictos sociales activos, con la baja institucionalidad y alcance del gobierno, y además, los diversos choques externos e inevitables como desastres naturales, epidemias y crisis internacional. No es exagerar el pensar en un escenario donde nuestra economía se vea afectada, y más peligroso, uno donde la teoría del péndulo peruano vuelva a cumplirse.


Jong-A-Pin, R. (2009). On the measurement of political instability and its impact on economic growth. European Journal of Political Economy, 25(1), 15-29.

Busse, M., & Hefeker, C. (2007). Political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment. European journal of political economy, 23(2), 397-415.

Bengoa, M., & Sanchez-Robles, B. (2003). Foreign direct investment, economic freedom and growth: new evidence from Latin America. European journal of political economy, 19(3), 529-545.

Gonzales de Olarte, E., & Samamé, L. (1991). Pendulo peruano: políticas económicas, gobernabilidad y subdesarrollo, 1963-1990. IEP, Lima, PE.

Reporte de Conflictos Sociales N.° 158 (2017). Defensoría del Pueblo.

Sergio Alayo
Estudiante de Economía de la UDEP, interesado tanto en políticas públicas como en regulación gubernamental. Amante de la literatura latinoamericana, cinéfilo y fan de Dylan,
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