El Cobre, la principal víctima de la guerra comercial

Fuente: El Comercio

En los últimos años el cobre se convirtió en el commodity más influyente respecto al crecimiento económico del Perú. Y es que después del boom del oro, el cobre se convirtió en nuestro principal motor para la economía y ha mostrado un importante desarrollo hasta convertirnos en el segundo país exportador de dicho mineral en el mundo. Sin embargo, como todo mineral, depende mucho del entorno internacional y actualmente el panorama no es nada alentador. La guerra comercial entre EE.UU. y China tiene en expectativa al mundo entero y genera una enorme inestabilidad al mundo comercial. Si bien esta semana dicho metal tuvo un alza de su precio, la incertidumbre acerca del futuro de dicho mineral continuará.


Las políticas agresivas de Donald Trump continúan generando inestabilidad al mercado mundial. Hoy en día, después de varias movidas políticas y económicas, el mundo padece un escenario lamentable de guerra comercial entre EE.UU. y China. Dicha guerra se inició cuando EE.UU. optó por aumentarle los aranceles a las importaciones provenientes de China, dicho aumento rodea los US$ 34,000 millones, tal medida fue correspondida de la misma manera por el “gigante asiático”. Esta guerra comercial tiene como consecuencia inmediata variaciones en los precios de los commodities, incluyendo al cobre, el cual es un metal bastante demandado por China, que sufre las consecuencias en la caída de su precio.


El cobre en esta guerra comercial ha sido considerado por los especuladores como la víctima principal respecto a los riesgos que asume tener esta disputa entre China y EE.UU. Y es que desde que se fue formando la disputa entre estos dos países el precio de cobre ha sufrido una caída histórica en su precio.

La semana pasada el cobre sufrió el mayor golpe en los últimos años, teniendo una perdida que supera los US$ 1,000, cayendo de los US$ 7,322 de tonelada métrica que fue su punto máximo en los últimos 4 años hasta llegar el pasado 7 de Julio a la sorprendente cifra de US$ 6,297.50. Esta fuerte caída para muchos especialistas fue una caída desmedida pues si bien se esperaba que la guerra comercial tenga una repercusión con el cobre, la magnitud fue muy fuerte.


El lunes 9 de Julio fue una fecha positiva para el cobre pues se apreció un leve crecimiento en su cotización en 1.78% en la Bolsa de Metales de Londres, alcanzando un precio de US$ 6,392.5 por tonelada. Además, los derivados financieros del cobre como los contratos a futuro tuvieron un crecimiento de 0.87% a US$ 2,89.

La situación tan volátil del cobre se debe principalmente a que tras la guerra comercial, China ha reducido su demanda interna del metal y además presenta condiciones crediticias más ajustadas mermando considerablemente la demanda de dicho material. Sin embargo, el mercado de cobre aún tiene proyectos importantes que se espera pueda impulsar su mejor cotización, tales como los proyectos mineros en Chile y Perú, que generan una expectativa particular.

André Gutiérrez
Tengo 26 años de edad y me considero una persona alegre, respetuosa y agradecida. Soy un apasionado de las finanzas por lo que siempre trato de aprender algo nuevo siempre y mantengo un ideal firme, ser mejor cada día.

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