ECONOMÍA

Dolarización, crecimiento y más

Fuente: El Nacional

Los comicios presidenciales de Venezuela, desarrollados este domingo 20, dieron como ganador a Nicolás Maduro. La reelección del candidato chavista se dio en una de las elecciones con menor participación en la historia venezolana, marcada por denuncias de irregularidades. El candidato que apuntaba a tomar la posta de Henrique Capriles, quien en el 2013 estuvo cerca de ganar, fue Henri Falcón. Su principal propuesta radicó en sustituir el bolívar por el dólar; es decir, una dolarización oficial. De haber ganado, Venezuela sería la cuarta nación latinoamericana en adoptar la divisa americana después de Panamá (1904), Ecuador (2000) y El Salvador (2001). No es sorpresa que Maduro haya calificado esta medida como inconstitucional, defendiendo a muerte el bolívar con su discurso nacionalista y anticapitalista.

¿Qué motiva la dolarización?

El uso de una moneda, como diría el economista Carlos Parodi, es un asunto de confianza. En una economía donde la moneda nacional pierde rápidamente su valor, la población comienza a buscar divisas seguras para mantener sus ahorros. Es la acción más racional que se esperaría, ya que nadie quiere ser espectador de cómo su poder adquisitivo se reduce al paso de los días. Entonces, son los procesos inflacionarios y, en el extremo, de hiperinflación, junto con una crisis generalizada, los cuales conllevan a considerar esta maniobra de última instancia.

¿Cuáles son sus efectos generalizados?

Sin duda, es un plan efectivo para frenar un espiral inflacionario y repotenciar la economía. Es creíble ya que la gente va a saber que no habrá inflación, por lo que el gobierno no tendría la necesidad de emisión inorgánica de moneda o uso de “la maquinita”, una de las causas de la hiperinflación de Venezuela. De esta forma, el sendero al crecimiento económico a futuro está dado con precios estables.

No obstante, se pierde la soberanía monetaria, hecho que critica Maduro. Se deja al país sin política monetaria y cambiaria, lo cual ata a la economía mucho más a las fluctuaciones del mercado. Existe una pérdida de competitividad dado que el Gobierno se ve incapaz de hacer depreciaciones y apreciaciones del tipo de cambio. Asimismo, como generalmente esta medida se aplica a economías pequeñas que dependen de Estados Unidos, el costo de vida sube significativamente por lo que no es una medida del todo inclusiva.

El caso peruano

Perú en la década de los 80 atravesó una situación similar a la de Venezuela. Entre 1985 y 1990, los precios subieron 22 millones por ciento. En consecuencia, la tenencia de dólares se disparó a tal punto que la economía se dolarizó parcialmente de manera “no oficial”. Es decir, fue una decisión espontánea de las personas migrar por dólares y no una medida del BCRP.

Si bien las políticas liberales del gobierno fujimorista lograron aplacar la hiperinflación, la dolarización del sistema financiero siguió siendo alta. Desde la implementación de metas inflacionarias como principal política monetaria, esta viene disminuyendo progresivamente.

Fuente: Semana Económica (2018)

Ninguna reforma económica es universal. Cualquier método que se aplique en una economía debe estar acompañado de una buena política fiscal e institucional. De otro modo, el país seguiría con problemas estructurales que terminen por absorber los efectos positivos de cualquier medida. La dolarización es plausible, sí, pero tiene sus riesgos. Depende de cada administración verificar sus pros y contras en el largo plazo.

 Fuentes:

BBC (2018). Las ventajas e inconvenientes de dolarizar la economía de Venezuela, la controvertida propuesta del candidato Henri Falcón para derrotar a Nicolás Maduro

Contreras et al. (2017). Real dollarization and monetary policy in Peru

Semana Económica (2018). BCR: dolarización de la liquidez y el crédito se redujo al cierre del 2017

Hugo Salazar
Estudiante de Economía en la Universidad del Pacífico. Nadador y ciclista empedernido. Con predilección por analizar el entorno macroeconómico mundial y su impacto en el bienestar de países en desarrollo. La educación nos hará libres.
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