Desaceleración económica mundial, los retos que afronta el Perú

,A  mediados de febrero la Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC), advirtió una posible desaceleración en la economía mundial. El indicador de las perspectivas del Comercio Mundial (WTOI) marcó una lectura de 96.3 para el presente trimestre. Esta representa la cifra con peor resultado desde marzo de 2010.  Christine Lagarde, presidenta del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI)  advierte sobre la ralentización de la economía mundial con una proyección de 3.5% de crecimiento mundial. Esta es una cifra inferior a la estimada a inicios de año (3.9%). El presente contexto resulta complejo para el Perú. Lo anterior porque es en un año donde se busca mejorar las cifras de los últimos tiempos.


A pesar del panorama internacional, el país se mantiene expectante y su proyección de crecimiento económico se mantiene en 3.9%. Las principales fortalezas del país son la demanda interna. Se espera un crecimiento de 4% en 2019 y mantener la buena gerencia del espacio fiscal y monetario. Así, los sectores estructurales como manufactura no primaria y construcción se encuentran en la fase de expansión económica generando una expectativa importante.


La inversión pública en los dos primeros meses del año presenta una caída de 20% interanual. Es una cifra sorprendente pero hasta cierta parte comprensible por ser un año de cambios en los gobiernos locales. Estos resultados tendrían que mejorar durante el año fiscal por la misma adaptación de los gobiernos locales. Ante esta problemática el Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas (MEF), está implementando medidas para contrarrestar las falencias como el acompañamiento y constante capacitaciones técnicas con los diversos gobiernos locales. Por eso, se espera una mayor inversión por parte del gobierno central para poder compensar las deficiencias locales.


La balanza comercial peruana espera seguir mostrando resultados positivos para este 2019 alcanzando un superávit de $5,5oo millones, según FocusEconomics. Estos resultados son positivos teniendo en cuenta que disminuirá la demanda de exportaciones de países importantes como China. Por otra parte, se espera mejores resultados en la producción minera que compensaría dicha deficiencia. Existen también importantes tratados comerciales que se están potenciando como el recientemente firmado con Australia. Este acuerdo permitirá a más del 96% productos peruanos puedan ingresar libremente a Australia; siendo las agroexportaciones y los  productos mineros los sectores más beneficiados. La India, China y Reino Unido son otros importantes países en los que se espera consolidar lazos comerciales.


El Perú tiene fortalezas para afrontar el contexto internacional. Sin embargo, no se puede hacer caso omiso del difícil entorno mundial. Las exportaciones prometen tener buenos resultados, asumiendo que la economía mundial mantenga su crecimiento estimado (3.9% según FMI). De lo contrario, las exportaciones podrían verse seriamente afectadas. Otro de los factores a seguir detenidamente son las cotizaciones de los principales metales exportados y el impacto que estos puedan tener en la inversión privada.


André Gutiérrez
Tengo 26 años de edad y me considero una persona alegre, respetuosa y agradecida. Soy un apasionado de las finanzas por lo que siempre trato de aprender algo nuevo siempre y mantengo un ideal firme, ser mejor cada día.

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