ECONOMÍA

Construcción y corrupción: consecuencias de una herencia no deseada

A puertas de un nuevo año, el Perú se encuentra sumido –nuevamente- en una crisis institucional de consecuencias que deberían esquivar el conformismo e indiferencia de la población. Y es que la lista de los hechos que han marcado los últimos meses del 2017, no es solo larga, sino muy dolorosa de contar: anuncios de vacancia y pedidos de renuncia presidencial presentadas por un poder legislativo polarizado; los fallos de prisión preventiva hacia los gigantes de empresas que años atrás se alzaban como los máximos representantes de la marca país en el exterior; y las mociones de destitución de miembros del Tribunal Constitucional, por citar algunos (El Comercio, 2017), (Miró Quesada, 2017). Todo esto a tan solo año y medio del presente mandato presidencial.

Como se resalta en este artículo, tomando como referencia lo difundido por el Foro Económico Mundial:

“Se estima que el costo total de la corrupción equivale a más del 5% del PBI global (2.6 billones de dólares), lo cual equivale a casi 14 veces el PBI del Perú (192 miles de millones al 2015).”

Y es que claro, debido a la corrupción los hacedores de política enfrentan mayores dificultades en saber invertir eficientemente los recursos en obras rentables, para prevenir los así llamados “elefantes blancos” (Obras inconclusas de mala calidad). Además, hay un incremento en la desconfianza por las asociaciones público-privadas, lo que supone mayores trabas para que empresas de respetable trayectoria puedan contratar con el estado (GIZ, 2008).

Ambos puntos resultan de gran relevancia para sectores tan golpeados por la coyuntura actual, como lo es el sector construcción. Algunos autores como Sohail y Cavill (2006) resaltan que en obras de infraestructura las consecuencias de la corrupción son: (1) la baja calidad de las obras realizadas, debido a la desviación de fondos necesarios en actividades de mantenimiento y operación a “cuentas fantasma”; y (2) la reducción de los montos de inversión pública y privada.

Para el caso de Perú, en el gráfico 1, se puede analizar el dinamismo mensual de la participación del PBI del sector construcción en el 2017 respecto a años anteriores. Así, si bien en el tercer trimestre del 2017 ha habido un incremento en el PBI del sector construcción, para los próximos meses los costos de corrupción pueden incidir en caídas en los montos de inversión (tanto pública como privada). Esta caída podría comprometer al PBI del sector en cifras como las vistas a inicios de año con el FEN.

De hecho, el caso Odebrecht ha dejado inconclusos tres megaproyectos: el gasoducto del sur, la vía de evitamiento en Cusco y la vía Costa Verde – Tramo Callao, por un costo total de US$ 29 millones. Por lo mismo, especialistas en el campo auguran que las expectativas de crecimiento de la economía caerían a 2% en el 2018 (Castillo, 2017).

Gráfico 1: Evolución mensual del sector construcción (Variación porcentual)

2015-2017

 

Fuente: INEI y (MVCS, 2017)

Pareciera que la corrupción se ha institucionalizado a tal punto de comprometer el desempeño económico y las metas planteadas como país. El fallo es del sistema y de suponer que la simplificación de procesos es una respuesta suficiente para combatirla. Garantizar correctos canales de fiscalización en todo sector, más aún en construcción, es una prioridad que como sociedad debemos afrontar y exigir a nuestro gobierno.

Lea también: “El costo de la corrupción” 


Fuentes

GIZ. (2008). Costs of Corruption: Everyone Pays – And the Poor More than Others. Eschborn.

Díaz, V. (5 de mayo de 2017). El costo de la corrupción. Punto y Coma.

MVCS. (2017). Perú: Evolución Mensual de la Actividad del Sector Construcción (PBI de Construcción): 2014 – 2017.

Sohail, M., & Cavill, S. (2006). Corruption in construction projects. Loughborough University Institutional Repository.

El Comercio. (15 de Diciembre de 2017). PPK, la Interoceánica y los pagos de Odebrecht a Westfield. El Comercio.

Castillo, N. (17 de diciembre de 2017). ¿Cuál es el impacto económico de la posible vacancia? El Comercio.

Miró Quesada, J. (17 de diciembre de 2017). Tribunal Constitucional: ¿Por qué el Congreso acusa a cuatro magistrados? Perú 21.

Alberto Saldarriaga
Wanna be Economista de la UP. Con gran interés en el trabajo de consultoría e investigación de políticas sociales que garanticen un desarrollo económico sostenible, según la coyuntura y entorno de cada país. Además, me considero un melómano, cinéfilo y apreciador del arte.
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