¿Cómo afecta la guerra comercial a la minería?

Fuente: Gestión

La guerra comercial entre Estados Unidos y China ha golpeado a nivel mundial a todos los mercados. La continuidad de esta disputa podría causar daños en la economía mundial reduciendo su crecimiento. Este suceso puede tener efectos negativos en el tipo de cambio, flujos de inversiones extranjeras y las exportaciones en las economías emergentes.

En Perú el sector más representativo para el Producto Bruto Interno (PBI) es la minería. Según el Ministerio de Energía y Minas, esta conformó el 10% del PBI del 2017 y el 62% del valor de las exportaciones. Además, el mayor comprador en este sector suele ser China. Por lo que si existiera un suceso que afecta su economía, como un menor crecimiento de manufactura por ejemplo, este también impactaría a la demanda de minerales, que a su vez ejerce presión sobre los precios de los commodities (Cobre, zinc, oro, plata, etc.).

Estas semanas la tendencia de los metales ha ido a la baja por dos razones principalmente: la guerra comercial que pondrían en riesgo el crecimiento económico chino en los siguientes trimestres y la lenta expansión de la economía china del segundo trimestre. Estos sucesos apuntarían a que exista una menor demanda de materias primas lo que afectaría los precios.

El cobre

El cobre a tres meses perdía 0.89% hasta los US$ 6,181.5 por tonelada al medio día de hoy, cercano a su menor nivel en un año. Los precios de este metal han retrocedido 14% en lo que va del año.

Otros metales

Entre otros metales empleados en uso industrial:

  • Zinc perdía más de 3% a US$ 2,508 por tonelada. Este sería uno de los niveles más bajos desde Junio del 2017.
  • Niquel, Estaño y Aluminio bajaron a mínimos de varios meses en Julio.

La economía china

La producción industrial creció a un ritmo más lento en dos años por la guerra comercial. De hecho muchos analistas de materias primas precisan que si bien China tiene cierta estabilidad en su economía, existe incertidumbre en la inversión en infraestructura.  Este último representa  entre 40% y 60% de la demanda de metales de China por lo que una ralentización en este sector afectaría los precios de los commodities.

Menos demanda de commodities afectaría al sector minero peruano, lo que reduciría el PBI peruano. Solo un acuerdo entre China y Estados Unidos podría eliminar la incertidumbre generada en cuanto a los sectores industriales y el crecimiento económico chino. Además,  una mejor definición del modelo económico chino podría ayudar a mantener y preservar su estabilidad económica. El desempeño de estas variables y los eventos relacionados a estas serán determinantes para el sector minero peruano en los siguientes trimestres.


Karla Almeyda
Economista de la Universidad del Pacífico. Me encanta el análisis de los instrumentos financieros (bonos, derivados, etc.). Soy una fiel amante del deporte, la alimentacion saludable, los viajes y la buena música.

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