ECONOMÍA

Artículo: EL PERÚ Y LA TRAMPA DE LOS INGRESOS MEDIO

Fuente: Internet

El inicio del siglo 21, significo una de las épocas doradas en la economía del Perú. Y es que entre el 2002 y 2013, el país registro un crecimiento nunca antes visto promediando el 6.1%. El Perú comenzó a tener la atención del mundo pues inclusive durante la crisis del 2009, el Perú mantuvo unas tasas de crecimiento en verde. Este contexto de bonanza ayudó mucho al país, sin embargo actualmente las tasas de crecimiento no son tan alentadoras y las faltas de reformas, hacen creer que el Perú se ve amenazado por la trampa del ingreso medio.

LA TRAMPA DE LOS INGRESOS MEDIO EN SUDAMERICA

Se le conoce como trampa de los ingresos medios a la situación en la que determinado país con economía emergente presenta un alto crecimiento económico. Estos países, no consiguen consolidar ese crecimiento y comienzan a tener un estancamiento en sus índices. Esta situación es conocida en Sudamérica pues Argentina y México padecieron esta trampa económica con resultados negativos y es que después de un crecimiento constante nunca llegaron a despegar. La otra cara de la moneda es Chile, quién si logro despegar su economía, consolidando un PBI per cápita de casi el doble al peruano.

Las razones por las cuales países con altas tasas de crecimiento terminan en la trampa de los ingresos medios son por la falta de reformas. Actualmente el país, se ve perjudicado ya que no goza de un commodities bien cotizado como en su momento el oro, sólo el cobre lucha por mantener una cotización buena en el mercado. A diferencia de los momentos de auge económicos del país, actualmente el Perú no tiene nuevos motores de crecimiento.

LAS DEFICIENCIAS DEL PERÚ

Uno de los temas complicados para el país es el impacto que tiene la evidente crisis política en la economía. Según Julio Velarde, presidente del Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, la corrupción sí afecta a la economía sin embargo no definió como. Este comentario, genera un sabor amargo pues a la falta de impulsos para crecer económicamente se le está generando mayores trabas.

En el entorno, según estudios del Banco BBVA, las proyecciones para América Latina no son favorables. Las causas planteadas son el aumento de la volatilidad financiera y menores precios de materia prima. Resaltando la elevada volatilidad del Cobre, un mineral muy importante en nuestro país, debido a la guerra comercial entre EEUU y China.

El riesgo país en promedio bajó dos puntos básicos cerrando en 1.18 puntos porcentuales según JP Morgan, pues los inversionistas consideran que a pesar de las deficiencias como país mantenemos una buena visión. Estos resultados nos dejan un sin sabor pues haciendo bien las cosas nuestros indicadores mejorarían. Definitivamente, el Perú tiene el reto pendiente de recuperar la senda positiva en economía.

André Gutiérrez
Tengo 26 años de edad y me considero una persona alegre, respetuosa y agradecida. Soy un apasionado de las finanzas por lo que siempre trato de aprender algo nuevo siempre y mantengo un ideal firme, ser mejor cada día.
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