ECONOMÍA

Análisis: El Ingreso Básico Universal – El caso de Finlandia

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Hace algunos días se conocieron los resultados preliminares de un experimento emprendido por el gobierno Finlandés. ¿Recibir dinero a cambio de nada puede reducir el desempleo?

La idea:

La noción de Ingreso Básico Universal (IBU) no es única ni nueva. Países como Canadá, Italia e India han puesto a prueba la idea (en pequeña escala) en las últimas décadas. Consiste en dar una suma fija de dinero a toda la población. Ello implica que tanto los empleados como los desempleados recibirán el monto sin distinción alguna.

Pequeñas grandes diferencias

Algunos proponen que el IBU debe sustituir todo tipo de programas sociales. De esta forma no solo se financiaría, sino que disminuiría toda la burocracia asociada a la implementación de los respectivos programas. Una transferencia es más simple y rápida.

Otros mencionan que el IBU debe acompañarse con programas sociales. De esta manera no se abandonaría de pronto a todos los beneficiarios, sino que la transición sería pausada. Además se puede acompañar a las poblaciones vulnerables en la búsqueda de empleo.

Cifras en Finlandia

Desde enero de 2017 hasta diciembre de 2018, 2000 finlandeses desempleados elegidos aleatoriamente (a través de un sorteo) recibieron 560 euros mensuales. Los resultados muestran que las transferencias del gobierno no tuvieron un impacto significativo en la probabilidad de conseguir empleo o emprender un negocio.

Sin embargo, los participantes se sintieron más felices y menos estresados en promedio, en comparación con los que no recibieron la transferencia. Este resultado no es nuevo. Un experimento realizado en Canadá en la década de 1970 mostró que las hospitalizaciones se redujeron en 8.5% y más niños continuaron en sus escuelas.

Críticas

En primer lugar no nos encontramos frente a un caso de IBU, ya que todos los participantes estaban desempleados. Tomando en cuenta que se propone que el IBU incrementaría la demanda interna, generando más puestos de trabajo, este experimento no nos da luces sobre el impacto total en el empleo.

¿Qué buscamos?

En el caso de Finlandia era simple: ver si las transferencias impactaban en la probabilidad de conseguir un empleo. Dado que los resultados no cumplieron con el objetivo, decidieron no continuar con el experimento. No obstante, que los ciudadanos sean más felices puede ser el objetivo de la propuesta.

El financiamiento y utilidad del IBU son las cuestiones que generan mayor debate entre los economistas y políticos. La palabra depende siempre saldrá en defensa del primer grupo. Si dar dinero gratis genera inflación, el efecto positivo del IBU en la demanda interna y el consumo disminuye. Si esto no ocurriese, entraríamos en un círculo virtuoso de empleo y consumo.

Lo más probable es que ninguno de los dos extremos ocurra en la realidad, pero marcan la agenda de discusión. Habrá que esperar para ver más resultados de esta propuesta.

 

 

Nagesh, A. (8 de Febrero de 2019). Finland basic income trial left people ‘happier but jobless’. BBC News.

Samuel, S. (9 de Febrero de 2019). Finland gave people free money. It didn’t help them get jobs — but does that matter? Vox.

Alfredo Dancuart
Estudiante de economía de la Universidad del Pacífico. Me interesa la gestión pública y la investigación, y creo que siempre es bueno integrar herramientas de otras disciplinas para un mejor análisis económico. Me gustan las humanidades, las ciencias sociales y la música (si es Soda Stereo, mejor).
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