AFPs: se esperan menores ganancias de los fondos


En los últimos años, hablar de las AFPs siempre fue debatir los plazos en que los jubilados podrían cobrar o la tasa de mortalidad aplicada para este derecho. Sin embargo, según unas recientes declaraciones de Roberto Metzi, vicepresidente de inversiones de AFP Integra, pronostica un panorama muy conservador respecto al crecimiento de los fondos. Noticia más que preocupante pues en los últimos diez años dichos fondos percibieron tasas de hasta 10%. Esta información tiene un impacto negativo en la población nacional pues despierta las críticas al sistema de pensiones. Las razones que expone Roberto Metzi para justificar sus pronósticos son básicamente por apreciación del mercado financiero y un deslinde de responsabilidades de los Bancos Centrales a nivel global.


Los fondos de pensiones no son estáticos como un plazo fijo, por el contrario son invertidos por las AFPs en distintitos derivados financieros a nivel nacional e internacional. Actualmente, el sistema financiero a nivel mundial está sufriendo un alza significativa de sus valores por la misma oferta y demanda, los instrumentos financieros más afectados son  los bonos y acciones. Que resulte más “caro” invertir en el sistema financiero, termina mermando las ganancias de los fondos de pensiones.


Los fondos de pensiones es un tema prioritario para cada país porque determina la calidad de vida de la población que por determinada edad ya no puede trabajar. Bajo este criterio, los estados mediante sus Bancos Centrales siempre buscan dar un soporte estructural a dichos fondos. Sin embargo, actualmente a nivel global se observa una tendencia en los Bancos Centrales de deslindarse de esa responsabilidad. Esto hará al mercado mucho más volátil pero a la vez condicionará las inversiones de los fondos de pensiones.


Como sabemos las AFPs manejan 3 tipos de fondos, los cuales por su composición tienen un grado de riesgo distinto. Según las proyecciones echas por AFP Integra, los fondos tendrían en un mediano plazo (5 a 10 años) la siguiente variación:

  • Fondo 1: Este tipo de fondo es el de menor riesgo o más conservador y esto se debe al estar compuesto por derivados financieros con mayor renta fija, como por ejemplo los bonos. En un mediano plazo, se espera que tenga un crecimiento de 4% a 5%.
  • Fondo 2: Este fondo se le considera mixto pues es un poco más balanceado su composición entre acciones y bonos. En los últimos 10 años han tenido un crecimiento muy positivo promediando los 8%. Sin embargo, según las estimaciones de AFP Integra, su crecimiento proyectado promediaría los 6% y 6.5%.
  • Fondo 3: Este fondo al estar compuesto en su mayoría por acciones de valores y se manejan en mercados privados. Esto quiere decir que asumen ciertos riesgos, lo que también tienden a pagar un mayor retorno. La tasa de crecimiento esperada en el mediano plazo es de 7%.
André Gutiérrez
Tengo 26 años de edad y me considero una persona alegre, respetuosa y agradecida. Soy un apasionado de las finanzas por lo que siempre trato de aprender algo nuevo siempre y mantengo un ideal firme, ser mejor cada día.

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