ECONOMÍA

Opinión: Régimen de metas de inflación y la credibilidad del BCR

Las variaciones en el nivel general de precios siempre ha sido un tema central en la política monetaria para los bancos centrales de todo el mundo. Desafortunadamente, la necesidad de controlar este indicador, conocido como inflación, fue aprendida luego de varios episodios de crisis muy intensos a lo largo de la historia. Consecuencia de estas duras lecciones, los esfuerzos de la mayoría de los bancos centrales han dado como resultado un nivel de inflación anual a nivel mundial de 3.8%. Sin embargo, aún podemos ver países con niveles muy altos. Dentro de este grupo, exceptuando a Venezuela con la estratosférica cifra de 1 millón %, encontramos a países como Sudán del Sur (106.4%), Sudán (61.8%), Argentina (31.8%) e Irán (29.6%) con los índices inflacionarios más altos del mundo.

¿Cómo le ha ido a Perú?

Tal parece que los niveles experimentados durante la década del 80 han dejado grandes lecciones. Así, durante los últimos 20 años la inflación se ha mantenido alrededor del 2.8% anual. Este exitoso resultado se debe en parte a la adopción de un régimen de metas de inflación adoptado por el BCR desde el 2002. Básicamente, el Banco se compromete a mantener la inflación dentro de un rango específico durante el tiempo. Con esto se busca influir en las expectativas de la economía para fomentar un sentimiento de estabilidad sobre el nivel de los precios. Ciertamente, la economía en general podrá desenvolverse mejor teniendo la relativa seguridad de que los precios van a permanecer aproximadamente en el mismo nivel en el futuro.

Sin embargo, vale decir que esto va a depender en gran medida de dos cosas. Primero, de que, efectivamente, el BCR pueda mantener la inflación dentro de los niveles prometidos y, segundo, del tiempo durante el cual logre este objetivo. En palabras de Janet Yellen (2015), las expectativas de inflación a largo plazo se mantendrán ancladas a un nivel particular, siempre y cuando un banco central tenga la capacidad de mantener tal nivel por varios años. En suma, todo es cuestión de credibilidad.

El BCR y las metas de inflación

En los últimos veinte años, el BCR ha aplicado dos rangos metas. El primero, establecido en 2002, estuvo entre 1.5% y 3.5% anual. El segundo, adoptado en el 2007, entre 1% y 3% anual. Sin embargo, los datos muestran que la inflación ha estado fuera del rango meta el 75% de los meses entre enero 2002 y marzo 2019. No obstante, si observamos con detenimiento notaremos que los periodos en los cuales la economía tuvo una inflación anual mayor al 4% son pocos. De hecho, si es que el Banco Central hubiese ampliado un poco el rango meta al nivel aplicado por Chile, México y Colombia (2% – 4% anual), ese 75% se reduciría a un 50% (Dancourt, 2018). Evidentemente, este no es un dato menor, en tanto que la credibilidad de una institución se debe en gran manera a su capacidad para cumplir con lo planificado.

Finalmente, la tarea de mantener una inflación dentro de valores predeterminados no es sencilla. Con todo, venimos caminando una larga senda de estabilidad económica que se debe en parte a las políticas monetarias bien aplicadas por el BCR que en la actualidad nos permiten estar en una posición favorable respecto del resto de América Latina en materia de inflación (2% vs 5.9%).

Andrés Rosas
Economista PUCP. Disfruto investigando sobre los temas que más afectan a nuestra economía. Recontra futbolero y nadador por afición. Tengo la certeza de que la lectura es la cura para nuestros problemas.
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