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Primera vuelta: Los 5 principales ganadores

La primera vuelta fue por demás accidentada, pero podría terminar marcando un quiebre en la clase política del país, con el probable pase al retiro de varios de los líderes que han dominado los últimos quince años y el surgimiento de rostros jóvenes. Asimismo, el proceso desnudó las profundas falencias del Estado peruano, y en este caso específico de las autoridades electorales: no debería sorprender, por lo tanto, si con el nuevo gobierno llegan cambios al respecto.

¿Quiénes ganaron en medio de todo el caos? Acá un recuento.

#1 Keiko Fujimori: el mérito de Keiko no es sólo pasar a la segunda vuelta, sino haber casi duplicado su intención de voto con respecto al 2011. De Keiko y del fujimorismo se podrán decir muchas cosas, menos que no chambean. Vaya que lo hicieron y qué resultados les ha dado.

#2 PPK y la derecha tecnócrata: PPK no gana simplemente por pasar a la segunda vuelta, que de por sí obedeció también en parte a la salida de Julio Guzmán. PPK y los PPKausas ganan porque se han adueñado de la coalición electoral centrada en clases medias que antes apoyaba a Lourdes Flores y el PPC. Ese espacio electoral no es suficiente para hacerte ganar la presidencia, pero sí te vuelve un actor político relevante. Y a diferencia del PPC, los PPKausas son mas liberales en lo social generan más entusiasmo entre los jóvenes.

#3 Vero Mendoza: aunque ni pasó a la segunda vuelta, la verdad es que ese nunca fue su objetivo y de por sí superó lo que sus propios correligionarios esperaban de ella. Es por esta razón que ahora ella se erige como la líder natural de la izquierda y podría, si se lo propone, realizar el mismo trabajo que Keiko durante los últimos cinco años para ganar en 2021. Es más, como Marco Arana ha quedado debilitado al ni siquiera ser elegido congresista por Cajamarca, no hay quien realmente pueda disputarle el liderazgo. Al menos por ahora.

#4 César Acuña: aunque uno podría suponer que Acuña es uno de los grandes perdedores de esta elección, la verdad es que para cuando el JNE lo sacó de carrera su candidatura ya venía en picada, la atención de la prensa en sus plagios comenzaba a amenazar el negocio de su universidad y sus huestes comenzaban a abandonarlo. En cambio, la decisión del JNE, que luego no fue replicada con Keiko, no sólo evitó que se desinflara naturalmente sino que lo presenta en los sectores populares como víctima del abuso y probablemente lo vuelva inmune en el futuro a las denuncias que esta vez le hicieron tanto daño. Y como ha dejado claro al meter un buen número de congresistas, la marca de Alianza por el Progreso es fuerte.

#5 Las encuestadoras: mucho se dijo desde enero sobre ls supuestas “fotos del momento” y su incapacidad para predecir los movimientos en la campaña electoral. Es más, salvo por el caso vergonzoso de Idice, la encuestrucha a favor de la Alianza Popular, los resultados se asemejaron mucho a los sondeos publicados una semana antes. Ipsos, GfK, Datum y CPI, entre otras acertaron: incluso aquellos que cuestionaban la predicción de CPI sobre un Congreso con mayoría fujimorista absoluta tienen ahora que tragarse sus palabra: Keiko y su partido han conseguido 72 curules.

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