COYUNTURA

Análisis: la caída del metal precioso

A inicios de semana, el precio del oro cayó a su menor nivel desde fines de diciembre a US$ 1,281.76 la onza. A las 1205 GMT perdía 0.5% a US$ 1,285.17 la onza. La caída del precio del oro está ligada con el alza del dólar, por ende, se pensaría en una recuperación de la economía de Estados Unidos. Sin embargo, los motivos son diversos, el principal es el “suspenso” de la guerra comercial entre China y Estados Unidos, lo cual impulsa a una tendencia por activos más riesgosos como las acciones y el dólar. Otro motivo son las expectativas generadas por la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos ya que se especula un alza de la tasa de interés el próximo mes, lo que afectaría aún más a la demanda de activos que no rinden intereses. Entonces, de cumplirse la especulación, traería un aumento de precios en las acciones bancarias, por lo que los inversionistas obtendrían beneficios. También la medida se vería reflejada en una compra de divisas por parte de los bancos e inversores extranjeros. Al apreciarse el dólar, el tipo de cambio sube, lo que significa más inflación y prestamos más caros.

Rubro peruano

Un dólar más fuerte vuelve los activos en la moneda estadounidense más caros para los tenedores de otras monedas, lo que llevó a ejercer presión al oro. Una caída en el precio del oro trae consigo importantes implicancias para la minería peruana. Recordemos que el Perú es el primer productor de oro, zinc, estaño, plomo y molibdeno en América Latina. Entonces, la inversión en este sector lucirá menos atractiva, ya que la disminución de precio del metal afectará a las empresas mineras formales, en el sentido que deben analizar el impacto de la medida en los costos, y si a pesar de ello pueden sostenerse en el tiempo y continuar.

Emely Cóndor
Estudiante de Economía de la Universidad del Pacífico. Cinéfila de corazón. Investigadora inquieta. Adicta a los dulces y al café.
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