COYUNTURA

Opinión: Barnechea en el Paraíso

El flamante abanderado de Acción Popular Alfredo Barnechea, quien ha subido ligeramente en las encuestas (de aparecer en “otros” a hoy ostentar un humilde 3% según Datum), propone como principal lineamiento la creación de un Estado Benefactor en el Perú. Ahora, ¿qué es un Estado Benefactor? Es cuando el Estado provee la totalidad de los servicios para cumplir con los derechos sociales de la totalidad de sus habitantes. ¿Y en cristiano? Significa un Estado grande, imponente y que es responsable de cuidar a la población.

¿Eso es malo? Por supuesto que no. Miremos a Suecia, Finlandia, Noruega o Dinamarca. Países donde vivir es fácil, el Estado te da todo: seguro de desempleo, educación de calidad gratuita y seguro universal de salud. ¿Es gratis? No, pues esos privilegios vienen acompañados de impuestos altísimos, a veces cercanos al 70%. ¿Es factible en el Perú? No y por varios motivos: (i) falta de capacidad en el gobierno para proveer los servicios intrínsecos en un Estado Benefactor, (ii) peruanos quieren muchos beneficios pero no están dispuestos a pagar impuestos, (iii) alta informalidad, (iv) inmensa brecha de infraestructura, (v) bajísima calidad de educación, (vi) alta corrupción, (vii) narcotráfico creciente, (viii) poco alcance del Estado, etc. Podría enumerar más, pero todos sabemos que hay miles de problemas que solucionar antes de evaluar la aplicación de un Estado Benefactor.

Más allá de lo difícil que sería aplicar ese modelo en Perú, analicemos brevemente las propuestas de Barnechea para lograrlo y, a su vez, poder financiar dichas propuestas. Dentro de las Barneideas más importantes están: (i) educación y salud de calidad gratuita, (ii) beca 25 para estudios de postgrado, (iii) medicinas gratis para las enfermedades más comunes, (iv) aumento del piso de ingresos para pagar renta, (v) devolución de gastos de salud y educación para quienes ganen entre S/.4,000 y S/.6,000, (vi) renegociación de los contratos de gas y (vii) impulsar la formalización mediante un impuesto plano del 2% del sueldo mínimo. No sé ustedes, pero a mí me queda claro que Barnechea no está viendo todo el panorama. ¿Educación y salud de calidad gratuitos? ¿Devolución de gastos? ¿Beca 25? Suena muy bonito, pero ¿cómo lo va a financiar? Dentro de sus propuestas propone disminuir la ya baja base tributaria de renta, renegociar contratos de gas (algo muy difícil que podría afectar el clima de inversiones y tener un efecto inverso el buscado) y un impuesto del 2% del sueldo mínimo que nadie sabe quién lo va a pagar ni por qué. Barnechea quiere gastar para dar una calidad de vida nórdica a los peruanos, pero o planea hacerlo con ingresos que no sé dónde sacará o su carta bajo la manga es un alza de los impuestos para poder financiar tanto gasto y no le ha dicho a nadie.

Asimismo, lo que pareció olvidar el señor Barnechea es la situación de la economía hoy. En el 2007-2008 creía la posibilidad de un Estado Benefactor dado los fuertes ingresos del Perú que, aunque eran a base de los metales, algo se podía hacer para diversificar la economía y fortalecer otras industrias. Hoy, estamos creciendo por debajo del PBI potencial y con proyección de déficit fiscal los próximos 3-4 años. ¿Es responsable proponer mayor gasto por parte del gobierno sin tener propuestas claras para mayores ingresos? No, no lo es. En el corto plazo puede ser bonito pero en el largo plazo puede resultar comprometedor y contraproducente. Barnechea se olvidó de cómo funcionan las cosas y, al parecer, ha confundido el nombre de Acción Popular por Acción Populista.


Fuente de la imagen de portada: La República

Diego Olivera
Bachiller en economía por la Universidad del Pacífico, se especializa en finanzas. Ha contribuido con el dictado de cursos cuantitativos, macroeconomía y teoría de portafolio. Su experiencia incluye la administración de fondos de inversión, así como la publicación de artículos de opinión en diversos medios online
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