COYUNTURA

Análisis: ¿Por qué el presidente Martín Vizcarra bajó en las encuestas?

La designación de un nuevo primer ministro, Salvador del Solar, y de un nuevo gabinete ministerial trajo también la publicación de una encuesta elaborada por El Comercio-Ipsos. En esta, la cual apareció días después, la aprobación del presidente Martín Vizcarra descendió a 56%, dos puntos porcentuales menos que el mes pasado. Su desaprobación, además, pasó de 32% a 31%.

Pero, ¿a qué se debe esta disminución en cuanto al favor que le brinda la ciudadanía al presidente? Desde que Vizcarra inició una estrategia férrea de lucha contra la corrupción en julio del año pasado, las cifras parecían indicar un gran respaldo de los peruanos. Sucesos importantes como la explosión del caso de los audios de “Los cuellos blancos del puerto”. La cuestión de confianza presentada ante el Congreso.

La encarcelación de la excandidata Keiko Fujimori. El intento de fuga del país del expresidente Alan García vía la embajada de Uruguay. El referéndum de diciembre. Asimismo, los avances en la firma del acuerdo con Odebrecht resultaron elementos poderosos que le permitieron catapultarse en las encuestas, aun cuando no tuviera injerencia directa en algunos de ellos.

Aquella imagen presentada durante el discurso de fiestas patrias de rectitud incorruptible encontró su correlato en los diferentes eventos que se sucedieron en el transcurso del año. Además de una clara inclinación a cumplir las exigencias de la ciudadanía, lo cual le llegó a valer el título de “populista” por ciertas personalidades de la política. Sin embargo, del 67% del que gozaba ha caído en más de diez puntos porcentuales desde el inicio del presente año.

Las razones no son tan complicadas de identificar. Los vínculos que se le encontraron con la empresa Odebrecht a través del consorcio Conirsa, del que su empresa, C y M Vizcarra S.A.C. Y que este formó parte, sumado a su insuficiente explicación de los hechos en un primer momento, fueron cuestiones que desfavorecieron al presidente por su mal manejo de la información publicada. Esto, a su vez, teniendo en cuenta lo perjudicial que resulta en la actualidad ser asociado con la constructora brasileña.

A ello habría que agregarle las declaraciones de un colaborador eficaz sobre aportes de 100,000 dólares a la campaña de Pedro Pablo Kuczynski del 2016 provenientes de Construcción y Administración Sociedad Anónima (CASA). Dicha empresa pertenece al “Club de la Construcción”, que se dieron a través de una reunión en casa de PPK donde estuvo presente Vizcarra.

No fue extraño que distintos parlamentarios utilizaran estas revelaciones para atacar al presidente como una manera de reducir su aprobación e incluso llevarlo a la vacancia. Otros insumos empleados también fueron la falta de presencia durante los huaicos que azotaron el sur del país a causa de un viaje realizado a España y Portugal para subscribir acuerdos. Esto fue señalado como innecesario y como una falta de compromiso con la ciudadanía.

En esa línea, tiene sentido que Vizcarra haya bajado en las encuestas. No es algo raro tampoco, más bien es común durante el segundo año de mandato de cualquier presidente. Pero es importante señalar que uno de los serios problemas de este gobierno es la falta de una comunicación eficiente. El expremier, César Villanueva, jugó un papel clave en esa cuestión, ya que no se encargó de manera eficaz de transmitirle a la población la necesidad de ciertas acciones o de dialogar con las diversas partes políticas.

Por ello es que la designación de Salvador del Solar puede ser visto como un intento de solucionar esos errores. Del Solar, quien cobró relevancia durante su gestión como ministro de Cultura. Además de ser un reconocido actor y, por lo tanto, contar con gran presencia mediática, parece el personaje capaz de suplir esa falencia del gobierno de Vizcarra: la falta de una comunicación efectiva.

 El 44% de encuestados aprueba su designación y la de su gabinete, que al contar con una proporción femenina de la mitad de sus integrantes suma puntos, así que solo queda esperar que el desempeño del presidente se encuentre en conjunción con una adecuada gestión del nuevo premier en cuanto a visibilidad del mismo.

Kevin Rivera
Estudiante de Literatura Hispánica en la Pontifica Universidad Católica del Perú. Apasionado del cine, el teatro y la literatura, además de poseer un gran interés por la coyuntura nacional e internacional.
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