POLITIBLOG

¿Trump va ganando?

La respuesta es no… al menos, no todavía.

La respuesta simple es no, al menos todavía. La cobertura televisiva de las elecciones a veces pierde de vista algunos aspectos importantes de la estadística electoral. Pero lo que es claro es que Trump está teniendo una noche mucho más fuerte de la que muchos esperaban. Para poner las cosas en contexto: los principales modelos predictivos le daban más de 80% de chance de victoria a Hillary Clinton. Todos excepto uno, claro está: FiveThirtyEight, de Nate Silver, ponía a Clinton como favorita 2:1. En otras palabras, Trump tenía más chances de ser presidente que yo de sacar cara dos veces al lanzar una moneda. Esas no son chances insignificantes, así que desde ese punto de vista lo de Trump no debería sorprender tanto aunque sí asustarte.

Algunos apuntes adicionales:

– Trump muy probablemente ganará los estados de Ohio y Florida, pero eso en sí mismo no le garantiza una victoria.

– La sorpresa que lleve a Trump a la Casa Blanca sólo puede venir en dos formas: o gana Michigan o gana Wisconsin, estados que parecían seguros para Clinton pero que ahora parecen ser más competitivos. El hecho de que Pensilvania parece seguro para Clinton, sin embargo, puede ser una señal positiva para ella puesto que éste es muy similar demográficamente a los otros dos estados.

– Parece que Clinton podría ganar Nevada y/o Carolina del Norte, lo que la pondría una posición muy ventajosa siempre y cuando no pierda Wisconsin o Michigan.

– No se sorprendan si Trump pierde e interpone demandas aduciendo fraude en algunos estados, tratando de alterar los resultados.

No deben quedar dudas de que a Trump le está yendo mejor de lo que se esperaba. Lo que es debatible es si esto llegará a ser suficiente.

Alfonso de la Torre
Economista por la St. Mary´s University en Texas y estudiante en la Maestría de Políticas Públicas de la Universidad de Harvard. Desde chico tiene problemas para diferenciar la derecha de la izquierda.
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