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5 razones para la victoria de Trump

Lo de Trump es excepcional (en el peor sentido de los casos) porque es producto de muchos factores conjuntos.

Donald Trump ganó y será el payaso más grande del mundo próximo presidente de Estados Unidos. Su victoria es excepcional, aunque no tan sorprendente como algunos sugieren (ya discutiré eso una vez que el conteo de votos sea definitivo), porque es producto de varios factores que tuvieron lugar al mismo tiempo. En cierto modo, eso no es normal, aunque tampoco inusitado: la historia está poblada de situaciones fortuitas que terminan moldeando el curso de millones, desde cosas terribles como las guerras mundiales hasta momentos sumamente positivos como la elección (y sobre todo la reelección) de Lincoln en EE.UU.

El punto aquí es que hay varias cosas que ir desmenuzando para entender por qué es que Trump ganó. Aquí yo intento una explicación de las cinco que me parecen más importantes:

La hegemonía del discurso populista y anti-globalista. El discurso de Trump, contra la migración y el comercio, es muy atractivo en este momento, no sólo en EE.UU. sino también en Europa. Lo vimos con Brexit pero también en la prohibición de la burka en Francia. Aunque los más jóvenes están relativamente en sintonía con la globalización, este no es el caso de sus padres y abuelos, quienes no sólo miran todo esto con recelo económico sino también cultural. Hillary trató de sintonizar con estos votantes, pero Trump le llevaba la delantera, en parte por su estilo altisonante. En algunos casos el antiglobalismo se mezclaba con racismo y xenofobia, y hay que decirlo con todas sus letras, pero la coalición de votantes de Trump va mucho más allá de eso.

La Corte Suprema en disputa. De esto no se habla mucho, pero en EE.UU. la Corte Suprema es foco de constantes batallas entre conservadores y liberales. Tras la muerte de Antonin Scalia el año pasado, quien era miembro de la facción conservadora, se habría la oportunidad de empujar la corte en una dirección más liberal si es que ganaban los demócratas. Además, no hay que olvidar que Ruth Bader Ginsburg y Stephen Breyer, ambos del ala liberal, tienen alrededor de 80 años de edad. Es muy probable que esto llevó a muchos republicanos inicialmente renuentes a apoyar a Trump a votar finalmente por él.

Los correos de Clinton. Hillary era ya una candidata que se movía constantemente entre el amor y el odio de la gente, y que era vista como alguien que intentaba ganar a toda costa. Lo de los correos que borró y su uso de información confidencial, aunque probablemente no tan graves, si sembraban dudas, medianamente legítimas en mi opinión, sobre su transparencia. Y el golpe de gracia fue la carta del FBI a una semana de la elección.

El aumento de los costos de salud por Obamacare. La reforma de salud de Obama ha incrementado la cobertura de salud de manera significativa y es un gran logro legislativo, pero no deja de tener problemas. Pese a que se prometió durante años que no alteraría los planes de muchos asegurados, ni que incrementaría las primas, esto sí ha pasado. Y lo peor para los demócratas, el más reciente incremento se anunció este último mes. Aunque Obama es popular, esto sólo ayudó a galvanizar a su oposición.

La sensación de inseguridad. Aunque ISIS viene perdiendo la guerra, sus ataques durante el último verano crearon la impresión de un mundo en caos en el que la violencia está fuera de control y se necesita un líder fuerte. Para los peruanos este cuento suena conocido y sabemos muy bien cómo acaba. ISIS ayudó a Trump a ganar, quizá más que el propio Wikileaks.

Naturalmente, es muy fácil ser general después de la batalla. Estos factores, que yo consideraba relevantes antes de la noche de ayer, han demostrado ser mucho más fuertes de lo que yo o muchos otros imaginábamos. Yo nunca aposté por una victoria  contundente de Hillary, y creía más bien que las chances de un triunfo por parte de Trump eran significativas. Pero eso no quita que el proceso político y social por el que se encuentra pasando EE.UU., y que probablemente redibujará el orden internacional, está lejos de ser bien entendido. Quizá algunos de estos factores pueden empezar a darnos luces al respecto.

Alfonso de la Torre
Economista por la St. Mary´s University en Texas y estudiante en la Maestría de Políticas Públicas de la Universidad de Harvard. Desde chico tiene problemas para diferenciar la derecha de la izquierda.
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