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Censura y confianza: Batalla perdida

PPK tomó una decisión y ya no hay vuelta que darle: dejará que censuren a Saavedra. La pregunta es qué pasará luego.

PPK tomó una decisión y no irá por la confianza. Incluso en mi caso, estando a favor de plantear la cuestión de confianza como estrategia para rayar la cancha, tengo que reconocer que a ventana de oportunidad en las últimas 24 horas se había cerrado significativamente. Y es que para elevar las apuestas hay que mostrar firmeza, y pasarse una semana dudando y esperando a ver qué tan multitudinaria es una marcha no es señal de la misma. Peor todavía, el continuo saboteo de parte de algunos congresistas de su propia bancada, que se mandaron a emitir opiniones antes que tomara una decisión, debilitó tremendamente su postura. Y sí, hay que reconocer que la encuesta de Ipsos que mostraba poco apoyo ciudadano a la cuestión de confianza tampoco ayudó(tema aparte: ¿no es curioso que aquellos que quieren que el gobierno implemente reformas económicas impopulares, como la flexibilidad laboral, súbitamente se muestren tan preocupados por lo que dicen las encuestas?).

Esto nos lleva a la que es quizá la conclusión más importante de todas: PPK ni es sensato por abstenerse de hacer cuestión de confianza ni arrugón por no elevar las apuestas. Es simplemente un capitán que cada vez manda menos en su barco.

Queda por ver ahora qué caminos le quedan a PPK tras esta decisión. Una es tratar de evitar la censura de Saavedra negociando tras bambalinas con el fujimorismo: si los naranjas son inteligentes, se darán cuenta que esa decisión es la que más les conviene, pues ya consiguieron intimidar al gobierno, pueden conseguir concesiones a cambios y, como cereza del pastel, proyectar una imagen un poquito más madura–esto último algo urgente tras dar el espectáculo de una pataleta poselectoral. La otra opción es aceptar la caída de Saavedra pero al mismo tiempo respaldar sus palabras con acciones: nombrar a alguien como Daniel Mora, quien ha estado íntimamente a la reforma universitaria (la cual, como ya he señalado antes, sí necesita arreglos), en el MinEdu. Poner a otro técnico, cuando los retos que enfrenta el gobierno son políticos, sería un gran error. Una tercera opción es mantener a Saavedra en un puesto cercano al gobierno, como asesor o consejero (Humala hizo algo similar con Wilfredo Pedraza luego de que éste dejara de ser ministro del Interior). El problema aquí es que, lamentablemente, el barro a Saavedra se le ha pegado y una parte de la población lo percibe como permisivo a la corrupción. Eso por supuesto no es verdad, pero en política no sólo hay que ser sino también parecer. De las tres alternativas, ésta es la menos atractiva.

Este es un momento decisivo para el gobierno de PPK, incluso si termina derrotado. Y es que en la política, como en la vida, hay que saber perder y saber ganar. En estas próximas semanas descubriremos si PPK y el fujimorismo saben hacerlo.

Alfonso de la Torre
Economista por la St. Mary´s University en Texas y estudiante en la Maestría de Políticas Públicas de la Universidad de Harvard. Desde chico tiene problemas para diferenciar la derecha de la izquierda.
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